While the ongoing war is sure to bring further tensions to Turkey-Iran ties, their relations are unlikely to shift dramatically under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed after his father was killed on the first day of the war. 

For decades, Ankara and Tehran have balanced geopolitical rivalry with pragmatic cooperation, competing for influence across the Middle East while avoiding direct confrontation. That pattern can be expected to persist under Khamenei despite the current war and rising tensions along Turkey’s border. On Friday, Ankara said a third Iranian missile had been intercepted heading for Turkish territory since the war started. 

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Friday the new leader had been wounded and was “likely disfigured” in ongoing strikes targeting Iran’s leadership.

Although the wartime transition in Iran’s leadership raises questions about its implications for Ankara-Tehran relations, it is more likely to reinforce than transform the longstanding pattern of cautious cooperation and strategic rivalry that has characterized ties between the two regional powers, experts say.