The Strait of Hormuz has long loomed as the world’s most dangerous energy chokepoint. In 2026, that risk scenario became reality, with the US-Israel-Iran war effectively shutting the waterway that typically carries roughly 20% of global oil supplies — while exposing just how few alternatives Gulf producers have developed to bypass the route.

Markets have responded accordingly. Oil prices have surged roughly 90% to surpass $100 per barrel amid warnings a prolonged disruption could push crude toward $200. The consequences extend far beyond energy markets — into food systems, industrial production and the broader global economy. The key variable is duration, but Iran has already demonstrated it can constrain Hormuz shipping for the foreseeable future absent major escalation or diplomacy. For Gulf states, that status quo is untenable.

For now, most exporters have few good options. Storage has filled up, forcing production halts. Yet Saudi Arabia stands out as a major exception: Aramco’s East-West pipeline — capable of carrying up to 7 million barrels per day across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea — has become a global pressure valve, helping prevent even more extreme price spikes.

The sudden centrality of this pipeline comes amid renewed interest in bypassing Hormuz altogether. Some proposals circulating online, such as a $100 billion canal linking the United Arab Emirates to the Gulf of Oman, veer into the implausible. There’s also likely to be interest in reviving megaprojects such as the US-backed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. But the underlying question is what can actually be built, and how quickly, to reduce future reliance on a chokepoint now controlled by Iran?