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Analysis

As Gulf crisis reshapes energy markets, experts warn of new normal

With the US-Israel-Iran war producing a historic supply shock, Al-Monitor hosted a panel of experts to explore how the conflict has ushered in a new era for global energy markets.

Philippe LOPEZ / AFP via Getty Images
A weathered diesel pump bearing pre-euro franc pricing stands idle at an abandoned petrol station in Ambes, near Bordeaux, southwestern France, on May 5, 2026. — Philippe LOPEZ / AFP via Getty Images

With the US-Israel-Iran conflict nearing the 90-day mark, energy markets are entering a more uncertain and fragmented phase, as maritime disruption, Gulf rivalries and infrastructure vulnerabilities reshape assumptions that governed the region for decades.

Amid violent price swings fueled by intermittent diplomatic signals and new threats, analysts say the crisis has already triggered structural shifts unlikely to disappear once hostilities subside.

“It would be very naive to believe that once this conflict is over, we’re going to go back to exactly the same conditions as before,” said Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, during an Al-Monitor webinar on May 20 examining how the war is transforming global energy markets.

The discussion featured Nakhle alongside Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of the Baker Institute and Noam Raydan of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who examined how the conflict is accelerating geopolitical and commercial changes across the Gulf and beyond.

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