US banking on Iraqi turnaround with nomination of Zaidi as new PM

US President Donald Trump spoke by phone on April 30 with Iraqi businessman Ali al-Zaidi, congratulating him on his nomination as Iraq’s next prime minister and saying in a Truth Social post that he looked forward to the “beginning of a tremendous new chapter” in US-Iraq relations. In a post on X the following day, May 1, Zaidi added that Trump had invited him to the White House once a new government is formed.

Zaidi is the nominee of the Coordination Framework, the powerful alliance of Iraqi Shiite political parties that controls about 185 of the 329 seats in parliament. Iraqi President Nizar Amedi, a Kurd, asked Zaidi to form a government on Monday. Under Iraq’s power-sharing system, the presidency is held by a Kurd, the prime ministership by a Shiite, and the speakership by a Sunni (Haibet Al-Halbousi). Zaidi has 30 days to form a government, which requires a two-thirds vote in parliament. Check out the reports here by Adam Lucente on the Iraqi electoral process, and further background on Zaidi.

On May 1, Trump doubled down on his expectations for the new prime minister, telling reporters, “With our help, he won, and we want him to do very well. And I told him that the United States is with him all the way. It was a great victory, the new head of Iraq is somebody that we support, very strongly." 

While the government formation process can be tricky, there now appears to be a consensus in both Baghdad and Washington that Zaidi has the inside track. Expect things to move fast.

Before speaking with Trump, Zaidi spoke with Tom Barrack, US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria. Barrack’s patient and skilled diplomacy, coordinating closely with Faiq Zaidan, the president of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, and other Iraqi leaders (see here Amberin Zaman’s article on Zaidan’s central role in securing the release of US journalist Shelly Kittleson), broke the stalemate that occurred after the Coordination Framework had first nominated former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, who was opposed by the Trump administration because of his past sectarian approach to Iraqi politics and presumed close ties to Iran.  

This was no small feat given the political climate. Washington had largely run out of patience with Iraq after the war with Iran began on Feb. 28. Pro-Iran militias have carried out repeated attacks on US personnel and interests — including in the Kurdistan Region and across the Gulf. Iran-aligned groups in Iraq have been behind many of the strikes on Saudi Arabia during the war. Both the US Embassy in Baghdad and the US Consulate in Erbil have drawn down most of their staff because of the constant threat. The United States has also stepped up pressure on Iraq’s interim government, canceling $500 million in dollar transfers and warning it could scale back security cooperation if the militias are not reigned in.

Barrack’s handling of the Iraq file, leading to Zaidi’s nomination, has put the relationship on a more hopeful track. His approach in Iraq complements his success in Syria, where he has guided a transition that few could have imagined after former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was forced out in December 2024, and in Lebanon, where his efforts have led to the first direct Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. Barrack has engineered crucial international and regional support for Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, to give the country its best chance to turn the corner on Assad’s brutal regime and away from Iran.

Barrack’s engagement with Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and Iraq has a strategic coherence. All four countries are essential for Trump’s endgame of an economically integrated Middle East, governed by commerce not conflict, and aligned with the United States. A turnaround in Iraq would be a windfall for US security, commercial and energy interests in the region. Trump wants an Iraq free from terrorism and committed to US partnership, including more opportunities for American companies. Stability and prosperity in Iraq, free of malign Iranian influence, would be welcome news for Turkey, Syria and the Gulf.

The road ahead won’t be easy. There is uncertainty regarding the war with Iran, and disbanding the pro-Iran militias will be a formidable challenge for Zaidi or any Iraqi prime minister, even with US support. Iran and its proxies are unlikely to go quietly in Iraq.

Zaidi will need to chart a careful and independent course to keep Washington on his side. The appointment of credible ministers will be an early signal. The US has told Iraqi officials that no terrorist designated entities linked with Iran should be included in the next government. The United States will monitor those tapped for key ministries — especially oil, defense and finance — which will be critical for US security and economic interests. 

The Coordination Framework, which will also seek to maintain its influence, has already said it will establish "advisory committees" to support the new government. Here, too, the United States should be vigilant that such committees are not used by the framework to circumvent US concerns about ministerial appointments and Iranian influence.

Despite the challenges, Zaidi should nonetheless feel encouraged and empowered. Trump himself has set the expectations for change, and the door is now open for a "tremendous new chapter" in Iraq. It is up to Zaidi and the next Iraqi government to embrace the opportunity.