China joins the chessboard ahead of Iran-US talks

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Chinese officials won’t be present at the table during the first high-level meeting in nearly a decade between the United States and Iran, set to take place in Muscat this Saturday. But make no mistake: China has stacked the deck to play its leverage and shape the outcome of the negotiations.

US special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will represent Washington and Tehran at the talks. The goal, as set by US President Donald Trump, is to reach a new deal prohibiting Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. “I think everybody agrees that doing a deal would be preferable to doing the obvious (taking military action),” Trump said on Monday. The reported time frame is 60 days.

Yet China, Iran’s most powerful external backer, will have considerable influence over the structure and benchmarks of any agreement.

Let’s find out why.
Thanks for reading,
Joyce (sign up on LinkedIn or online here)

Leading this week

For China, the best way to gain influence over the talks is by solidifying its relationship with Iran. While this has been steadily progressing over the past 22 years, it significantly deepened after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and was cemented in 2022 with the signing of the 25-year Iran-China Comprehensive Strategic Agreement.

Just in the last two months:

• 🚢 In mid March, China, Iran and Russia launched their fifth and largest joint naval exercise in Gulf waters, near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
• 🇷🇺 The trio held two rounds of meetings — the most recent on Tuesday in Moscow — to agree on a formula for the upcoming talks in Oman.
• 🛢️ Beyond diplomacy, oil trade between China and Iran is booming despite US sanctions. As Adam Lucente reported Thursday, oil trade between the two countries surged in March, reaching 1.9 million barrels per day. 

What does China want from the US-Iran talks?

For China, three key principles guide its approach to Iran:

➡️ Support for a deal: China wants a deal between Iran and the US that would avert military conflict, prevent further instability in the region and align with Beijing’s strategic interest in curbing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

➡️ Sanctions relief: China is eager to see sanctions on Iran eased and is unlikely to support a return to snapback sanctions at the UN if the talks fail.

➡️ Preservation of Iran’s nuclear know-how: China does not favor an agreement that fully dismantles Iran’s nuclear capabilities — a scenario often likened by Israeli officials to the “Libya model.” In fact, Chinese statements have supported Iran’s stance. A March 13 statement welcomed Iran’s “reiteration that its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes and not for development of nuclear weapons, and also welcomed Iran’s commitment to full compliance with its obligations under the NPT and Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement.”

Joyce’s take: China’s strategy is to hedge its bets. It won’t sabotage the talks — it has direct interests in seeing a deal materialize. But it also won’t stand in the way if Iran decides to stall. Should no deal emerge, China will continue to deepen its partnership with Iran. That relationship is set to grow if Tehran becomes more isolated and increasingly dependent on the East.

Photo of the week

A man walks past a mural depicting a scene from the Iranian national epic "Shahnameh" in Tehran on April 8, 2025. Iran said on April 8 it will send its top diplomat to Oman for breakthrough talks with the United States, after President Donald Trump announced direct discussions on its nuclear program. (Photo by ATTA KENARE/AFP via Getty Images)

Deals and visits ✈️

• UAE economy minister meets with governor of Guangxi, China
• Iraq announces completion of school construction project with China
• First sea route linking UAE to south China opens
• Saudi Aramco and China’s Sinopec agree to expand petrochemical joint venture
• Algeria breaks ground on two solar power projects as part of broader collaboration with China
• China’s Sinoma wins $263 million contract to build Lenovo factory in Saudi Arabia
• Iraq, China establish joint research lab for microgrids and energy storage
• Iran’s oil exports to China hit record high in March since 2018
• Emirati, Chinese communications firms announce signing of strategic cooperation agreement
• Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone sees start of two new Chinese industrial projects totaling $58 million

Thanks to Al-Monitor's Rosaleen Carroll for helping with this section. 

What we are reading​​​

• US-China trade escalation has no end in sight, Simone McCarthy, CNN
• China’s EV boom masks economic pain for major auto hubs, Linda Lew, Bloomberg
• US pledges $2 million for Myanmar quake, but China already filled the void, Shannon Kingston, ABC