Newsletter: China-Middle East

Al-Monitor China-Middle East: China-Egypt first-ever joint air force drills

Joyce Karam
Joyce Karam
Apr 17, 2025

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“Opportunity does not wait for people,” goes the Chinese saying, and Beijing is seizing every opportunity it can to gain an edge in its trade war with the United States.

It’s no coincidence that this week Xi Jinping visited Malaysia and Vietnam — two critical manufacturing hubs for China and, more importantly, producers of rare earth minerals. These natural resources are the essential commodities that Beijing last week paused from export to the United States in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

But back to the Middle East . . . Some 5,000 miles from Malaysia, squadrons of Chinese jets are scheduled to arrive in Egypt this week for the first-ever joint air force drills between the two countries.

What’s behind the timing? Should Washington be worried?

Let’s explore.

Happy Easter and Passover to those observing!
— Joyce (sign up on LinkedIn or online here)

Leading this week

Open-source intelligence accounts began reporting earlier this week on an emerging "air bridge" between China and Egypt. On April 13, several accounts noted that at least five Xi'an Y-20 military transport aircraft from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force had landed at various locations in Egypt, including Cairo and the Wadi Abu Rish Air Base.

On April 16, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense announced that the People’s Liberation Army would send a detachment to Egypt for a joint air force training exercise codenamed Eagles of Civilization 2025. As Adam Lucente reports, the event will begin in mid-April, this week, and last until early May.

💭 This makes it likely that the Y-20s transported cargo and equipment for the drill.

Beyond the logistics, the drill itself is unprecedented — the first air force exercise in the history of Chinese-Egyptian military relations. While Beijing and Cairo have conducted joint military exercises in the past, including naval drills in 2019 and 2024, their air forces never took part in them.

What is Egypt thinking?

As Dale Aluf writes, the answer is simple: diversification, diversification, diversification.

Since 2015 — when Cairo received its last batch of F-16s, which still constitute the bulk of Egypt’s airpower, with more than 200 jets — President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and the powerful military have moved to diversify the country's arsenal. They purchased at least 50 French Rafale jets while continuing to replenish the fleet of Russian MiG fighters acquired through a relationship dating back to the 1950s.

It’s no secret that Egypt has also been flirting with the idea of purchasing Chinese J-10C fighter jets — a more cost-effective option than the F-16s and one that may also offer advantages in range and missile technology though the planes remain less combat-proven than the US fighters.

Politically, however, if Egypt moves forward with purchasing the J-10Cs, it could jeopardize its pending modernization request for its F-16 fleet.

Still, there are benefits for both China and Egypt in holding the Eagles of Civilization drill:

  • For China, it sends a blunt message to the Pentagon that it is operating and building military bridges with longtime US allies in the region.
  • For Egypt, it’s a win-win: strengthening ties with China — a policy Sisi has championed since 2013 — while signaling to Washington that Cairo’s strategic military partnership should not be taken for granted.

In the broader picture, it’s hard to overstate the damage the Gaza war has inflicted on Egypt’s relations with both Israel and the United States. With Washington rejecting Cairo’s postwar plan and Israel now controlling more than 50% of Gaza, including the Philadelphi Corridor, Egypt has started looking elsewhere for strengthening its military.

If the United States shifts its policy and provides modernization for the F-16s, Cairo will welcome it, but if not, Egypt is making sure it has alternatives.

For now, China gets to parade its jets and coordinate aviation techniques with Cairo while Washington shoulders the more expensive burden of securing the Suez Canal and safeguarding maritime navigation from Houthi and Iranian threats. 

Photo of the week

China's Ba Yi (August 1st) Aerobatics Team releases smoke from Chengdu J-10 Vigorous Dragon fighter aircraft while performing maneuvers during the first Egypt International Airshow at Alamein International Airport, northern Egypt, Sept. 4, 2024. (Photo by KHALED DESOUKI/AFP via Getty Images

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Thanks to Al-Monitor's Rosaleen Carroll for helping with this section. 

 

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