Mixed bag for China from Trump’s Gulf tour

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As US President Donald Trump concludes his three-day Gulf trip with a visit to the United Arab Emirates, Beijing is paying less attention to the golden swords, camels, and Arabian horses that escorted the 47th president in Saudi Arabia and Qatar and focusing more on the tech, microchip, and semiconductor deals signed during his tour.

For China, the trip is a mixed bag. On the one hand, there was no public emphasis on countering its influence and no major breakthroughs such as a defense pact or nuclear energy deal that would firmly anchor Abu Dhabi, Doha or Riyadh's interests in the United States. On the other hand, new avenues for AI cooperation between US companies and Gulf partners have emerged.

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Leading this week

Trump’s visit to the Gulf has been extraordinary in its optics, featuring a lavish investment forum in Saudi Arabia as Jack Dutton reports, a first meeting with Syrian President Ahmed Sharaa and a fighter jet escort in Qatar.

➡️ For China, however, the meeting with Sharaa and Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria align with its agenda. When Bashar al-Assad held power in Syria, China refrained from heavily investing in the country, primarily due to Western sanctions and the 14-year civil war. Beijing has been waiting for those obstacles to recede.

Two days before Trump’s meeting with Sharaa, the Syrian president hosted a Chinese official delegation in Damascus, his third since officially taking power in January.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa receives a delegation from the People’s Republic of China headed by Chen Weiqing, director-general of the Department of West Asian and North African Affairs at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Damascus, May 12, 2025. Photo: SANA

➡️ In Yemen as well, China stands to benefit from Trump’s agreement with the Houthis to stop attacks on US ships reached last week. Further ensuring secure maritime navigation and allowing Chinese vessels to pass through the Red Sea is a net positive for Beijing even though it struck its own deal with the Houthis last year.

On defense, a $142 billion deal to upgrade Saudi military capabilities and a statement of intent on defense cooperation with Qatar — which includes letters of acceptance for the planned transfer of US-made MQ-9B drones and FS-LIDS counter-drone air defenses to Doha — are not seen as a threat to Beijing.

Jared Szuba, Al-Monitor’s Pentagon correspondent, called the arms transfers “window dressing.” “There is no public confirmation from the White House on any sales that would indicate a strategic game-changer,” Szuba said.

The MQ-9B drones and FS-LIDS counter-drone air defenses to Qatar might be an exception, he added. “The Trump administration may be serious about finally breaking US manufacturers into the Gulf's market for unmanned drones.”

For Beijing, Szuba notes, “The US has long lagged behind China and Turkey in the Middle East’s armed drone market, largely due to Washington’s interpretation of missile export restrictions.” Over the past decade, China has emerged as the leading exporter of combat drones to the region. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China has delivered approximately 282 combat drones to 17 Middle Eastern states.

💡 Where China might feel the pinch: AI

One area where China might feel the pinch from Trump’s deals is artificial intelligence. On Monday, Saudi Arabia announced the launch of HUMAIN, an AI hub in the kingdom. Shortly after, US giants AMD, AWS and Nvidia announced partnerships with the new company.

Sam Wendel, senior market research analyst with Al-Monitor and author of the AI newsletter FutureVerse, says there might be reasons for Beijing to worry about HUMAIN.

“It appears the newly launched state-backed Saudi AI company HUMAIN is purposefully betting heavily on centering itself in America’s tech orbit. That contrasts with a similar Saudi AI company launched last year (Alat) that has made China forays,” Wendel said.

Also on the AI front, the Trump administration announced an early-stage deal granting Saudi Arabia more access to advanced semiconductors, including from Nvidia. Its access had been blocked during the Biden administration over fears of critical technology leaking to China.

The impact will depend on the specifics of the deal and who controls the data centers in Saudi Arabia, but supporters see it as a move to strengthen Gulf ties with the US AI ecosystem rather than with China's.

Strategic Outlook

In broad strategic terms, China had little to lose from a Trump visit that lacked new defense treaties or major political breakthroughs, especially coming after Trump’s own trade deal with Beijing. Yet in the areas of tech and AI, the United States made notable inroads that could complicate China’s ambitions in the Gulf — or, if unchecked, could leak to Beijing.

Photo of the week

Arabian horses escort US President Donald Trump’s motorcade in Saudi Arabia, May 13, 2025. Photo: White House video

Deals and visits ✈️

• Saudi Arabia, China sign export agreements for dairy and aquaculture products
• Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa receives delegation from Chinese Foreign Ministry
• UAE, China sign MoU on desalination project
• Iranian deputy minister of foreign affairs meets with Chinese ambassador
• Chinese EV firm Voyah launches flagship store in Abu Dhabi
• Chinese vice premier meets Saudi Aramco board chairman in Beijing
• Syrian president hosts Chinese business delegation in Damascus
• China and Egypt complete joint air force drill
• Chinese shipping company Cosco opens Saudi office
• Saudi’s AICTEC, China’s ZKTeco sign MoU to establish Saudi factory
• China’s Hanzo Motors to establish factory in Benghazi, Libya
• Emirates airline to launch route from Dubai to Hangzhou
• Chinese business delegation to visit Kuwait, Bahrain this weekend
• Omani, Chinese research facilities to collaborate on green hydrogen liquefaction
• Chinese foreign minister backs Iran talks, praises Iranian “diplomatic efforts”

Thanks to Al-Monitor's Rosaleen Carroll for helping with this section.

What we are reading​​​

• China now more popular worldwide than the US, Politico
• The evolving dynamics of China’s Middle East and North Africa strategy, IISS
• China is celebrating trade victory over America, The Economist