How does China view potential attack on Iran?

Hi readers,

Al-Monitor China-Middle East is back after a short break 🎣 — just in time for what’s shaping up to be a scorching summer in the region.

The cautious optimism that surrounded last month’s Iran-US talks has diminished, with Washington now evacuating personnel from Baghdad and ramping up security amid fears of Iranian retaliation following a potential Israeli strike.

So, what does this mean for China? In short: A military confrontation with Iran isn’t in Beijing’s interest — but, if it happens, it’s not a major setback either. China has long placed its bets on the survival of the Iranian regime, its vast interests in Tehran, and a strike on nuclear facilities is unlikely to shift that core calculation.

Let’s dive in.

Thanks for reading,
Joyce (sign up on LinkedIn or online here)

Leading this week

The US announcement on Wednesday to evacuate diplomatic personnel from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of military family members came just hours after Iran threatened to strike US bases in the region.

“In the event of any conflict, the US will have no choice but to leave the region as all of its bases are within our reach, and we will not hesitate to target all of them in their host countries,” Iran's Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said.

This escalation did not happen in a vacuum, and it has been building steadily over the past two years. For the sake of brevity, we will focus on the past 72 hours.

➡️ Monday: As Rina Bassist reported, US President Donald Trump said Iran’s response to the proposed deal was "unacceptable," describing the alternatives as "dire." Notably, Trump’s comments came after a 40-minute call with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

➡️ Tuesday: Al-Monitor's Ben Caspit reported that the Israeli military is prepared to strike Iran but is awaiting final approval.

"The army has made all the preparations; the air force is at peak readiness for an attack. All that’s missing now is the decision and the order," a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

Also on Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and China's Ambassador to Iran Cong Peiwu discussed the nuclear talks and bilateral relations.

➡️ Wednesday: Trump told the New York Post, as Beatrice Farhat reports, that his confidence in reaching a deal with Iran is waning.

“I don’t know. I did think so [a deal can be reached], and I’m getting more and more — less confident about it,” Trump said.

Wednesday also marked the end of the 60-day ultimatum Trump gave Iran in April to reach a deal. Since then, hurdles related to enrichment levels and the lifting of sanctions have stalled negotiations, which are set to continue — despite the escalation — on Sunday in Oman.

➡️ Thursday: China voted against an IAEA resolution that found Iran in non-compliance with its non-proliferation obligations. The move reinforces Beijing’s role as a strong defender of Iran on the international stage and suggests it could block any snapback sanctions if the UN watchdog refers the issue to the UN Security Council.

🤔 What’s at stake for China?

None of this should come as a surprise to China. Since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas and the ensuing Gaza war, Beijing has been closely watching and continuously adjusting its posture toward the escalating conflicts in the region. It has done so while trying to appeal to the Arab street and publicly draw contrasts with the United States and Israel, all the while privately maintaining good ties with the Israeli government and keeping open channels of communication with groups such as Hamas and the Houthis. Expect such balancing to play out in the event of targeted Israeli strikes inside Iran. 

Specifically on the Iranian nuclear file, China has consistently supported diplomatic efforts toward a nuclear agreement between Iran and the West, including the 2015 deal that Trump revoked in 2018. This stance is driven by three key reasons:

1. It shields the regime from military confrontation and boosts regional stability.
2. It protects China’s vast economic interests in and with Iran, starting with lower oil prices and the removal of sanctions.
3. It strengthens the 25-year strategic agreement between Beijing and Tehran, signed in 2021.

At the same time, China is not naive about developments in the Middle East and has adjusted its tone in response to sweeping changes in the region, such as the fall of the Assad regime, widely seen against its interests. It has also softened its criticism of Israel, as Dale Aluf reported last October. 

Even if a nuclear deal is not reached and Israeli strikes — possibly backed by the United States — target Iran, China is unlikely to abandon its partnership with Tehran. Throughout the negotiations, China has conducted military exercises with Iran and supported the illicit oil trade from Iranian ports, all the while ignoring US sanctions.

Last week, Laurence Norman of The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has ordered thousands of tons of ballistic missile components from China, with shipments of ammonium perchlorate expected to arrive in the Islamic Republic in the coming months. Although no date has been confirmed, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to make a state visit to China in the coming weeks.

Joyce’s take: While China prefers a new deal with Iran, it is prepared for an alternative in the event of an attack. As long as any military confrontation does not lead to regime change in Iran, Beijing’s priority is to protect and expand its commercial, military and energy interests with Tehran in the aftermath — while working to avoid a wider and prolonged war in the region.

Photo of the week

Satellite image from Space Imaging shows a nuclear reactor facility near Bushehr, Iran, Jan. 13, 2002. The United States believes this facility and others in Iran could be used by Iran to make nuclear weapons. (Space Imaging Middle East/Getty Images)

Deals and visits ✈️

• Chinese firm wins contract to build sustainable hotel in Riyadh
• Iranian foreign minister meets with Chinese ambassador
• Chinese steel firm wins $500 million Algerian steel project
• UAE’s Mag Group and China’s Citic sign deal for $6 billion real estate project in Dubai
• Egyptian, Chinese central bank heads meet in Cairo
• Iraq to build its first training nuclear reactor in partnership with China
• China’s Meituan to expand drone delivery service in Dubai
• Algeria cancels contract with China for port project
• Chinese construction giant agrees to operate and maintain central business district of Egypt’s New Administrative Capital
• Rail route linking China and Iran launches first cargo train
• China’s special envoy for the Middle East meets with Egyptian foreign minister
• UAE’s Emirates and Air China boost partnership
• Chinese firm wins bid for Egypt’s first waste-to-energy project
• Iraq to invest in oil refineries in China
• Chinese company announces $150 million pesticides facility in Egypt
• Chinese autonomous vehicle startup announces partnership with Dubai to deploy robotaxis in UAE
• Chinese-built highway opens in Saudi Arabia
• Turkish logistics firm and China Railway agree to jointly develop the Middle Corridor rail route
• Saudi Arabia, China hold meetings on strengthening climate cooperation
• China approves Qatari purchase of 10% stake in second-largest Chinese mutual fund manager
• Iraq, China to launch $10 billion fertilizer facility project
• Chinese wind turbine company to open first overseas factory in Morocco
• China to exempt Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain from visa requirements
• Iraq's Oil Ministry signs deal with Chinese firm for oil project in southern Iraq
• Egypt, Chinese firm sign agreement to supply trains for Egyptian metro line

Thanks to Al-Monitor's Rosaleen Carroll for helping with this section.

What we are reading​​​

• Chinese state media seize on LA unrest as proof that America is broken: SCMP
• How Trump botched the trade war with China: Politico
• Chinese propaganda surges as the United States defunds Radio Free Asia: The Washington Post