What China stands to gain from Israel-Iran war
Commentators have framed the Israel-Iran war as a loss for China as it watched its partner Tehran absorb losses. But that interpretation overlooks the transactional nature of China-Iran ties.
Hi readers,
The 12-day war that erupted after Israel struck inside Iran on June 13 — triggering retaliation from Tehran and a brief US entry into the fighting — shook oil markets and threatened to spiral into a broader conflict before a ceasefire was reached on Tuesday.
Many commentators have been quick to frame the war as a loss for China, watching its partner in Tehran absorb significant damage to its military, energy and nuclear infrastructure. But that interpretation overlooks the fundamentally transactional nature of China-Iran ties, the geopolitical advantage Beijing gains from Washington’s renewed entanglement in Middle East turmoil, and — most significantly — President Donald Trump’s Tuesday concession allowing Chinese purchases of Iranian oil to continue.
That’s not to say China emerged as the war’s winner — far from it. But Beijing does have long-term reasons to view the outcome as a strategic gain.
Let’s unpack.
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Leading this week
For China, a military confrontation between Israel and Iran was never desirable: It puts its interests in the Middle East at risk, undermines the stability of a strategic partner in Tehran and threatens Beijing’s signature project, the Belt and Road Initiative.
But as we zoom in, there are five reasons why China could benefit from this particular war, now that a ceasefire is in place.
1️⃣ Iranian regime still intact: Though the Israeli campaign killed key leaders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and scientists, the regime remains structurally, militarily, economically and politically intact. Trump on Tuesday was clear that Washington is not seeking regime change. “No, I don’t want it. I’d like to see everything calm down as quickly as possible. Regime change takes chaos, and ideally we don’t want to see so much chaos. So we’ll see how it does.”
For China, which has a deep partnership with the regime — underscored by the 25-year strategic agreement signed in 2020 — it is not in its interest to see the government overthrown or chaos within Iran.
The visit by Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh to China on Wednesday — his first since the war, as Rosaleen Carroll reports — signals that support.
2️⃣ US bogged down in another Middle East conflict: Trump expects the ceasefire to hold, but the risk remains high that tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel will resume, potentially dragging Washington back into the fray. Israeli sources told Al-Monitor’s Ben Caspit on Wednesday that while it’s still unclear whether the Iranian nuclear program has been set back by a year or two after the US bunker-buster bombardment of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, “what is important is Trump's determination. … Since Trump is committed to preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, we will receive at least three and a half years of quiet, until the end of his term."
A resurgence of the program, failure of diplomacy, or renewed fighting by Israel or Iran could draw Washington into launching further strikes inside Iran.
Moreover, the war has already reshaped the US military posture, forcing a withdrawal of resources from the South China Sea — such as the USS Nimitz — to the Middle East. This is welcome news for China as it seeks dominance in the Indo-Pacific.
3️⃣ Trump’s concession to China on oil: One of the most perplexing twists of the war’s aftermath came in a post from the US president on Tuesday declaring that “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.” The post appeared to undermine years of congressional action and Treasury sanctions aimed at halting Chinese oil imports from Iran.
Asked again on Wednesday at the NATO summit, Trump did not back down, offering conciliatory words to both Iran and China. “They just had a war. The war was fought. They fought it bravely. ... They're going to need money to put that country back in shape. We want to see that happen,” he said when asked about whether he would allow Chinese purchases from Iran.
China gets about 14% of its crude oil from Iran, accounting for roughly 90% of Iran’s total oil exports, according to Reuters and Bloomberg. Most of these transactions, however, are conducted illicitly through dark fleets because of sanctions.
Asked about the change on Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said his country “will take reasonable energy security measures in accordance with its own national interests.”
4️⃣ Iran now more dependent on China: The conflict has shattered Iran’s concept of deterrence against both Israel and the United States. Its retaliation of firing ballistic missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, all of which were intercepted, was at best performative and at worst ineffective. With its vulnerability and military weaknesses now exposed, Iran will become increasingly dependent on China. Whether in reconstruction, oil sales or rebuilding its missile program, China will be an indispensable partner — should Tehran choose to take that risk.
5️⃣ Nuclear negotiations: The war may incentivize Iran to return to the negotiating table with a weaker hand and accept a cap on its uranium enrichment. Here, too, China stands to benefit, as it has consistently advocated for a diplomatic agreement that contains Iran’s nuclear program, sustains regional stability and offers sanctions relief.
Photo of the week
A ship loaded with oil docks at a pier with the help of a tugboat at the port of Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on June 12, 2025. Photo by STR/AFP via Getty Images
Deals and visits ✈️
- China condemns US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities
- China’s Sunrev to invest $200 million in complex to produce solar energy components in Egypt
- Turkish, Chinese foreign ministers hold phone call
- Chinese petroleum and natural gas group wins contract to develop natural gas block in Algeria
- Egypt signs contract with China’s Hantong Shipyard for two shipping vessels
- Bahrain UN delegation visits China
- Chinese home delivery firm JD launches in Saudi Arabia
- Egyptian investment minister and Chinese commerce minister meet in Beijing, agree to organize investment forum
- Joint Chinese-Moroccan firm begins production of lithium-ion battery components in Morocco
- Saudi Cargo to establish joint venture with China’s TAM Group
- Chinese, Iranian foreign ministers hold phone call after Israeli strikes
- Chinese food delivery company Keeta to expand into Kuwait
- Turkey, China renew $4.8 billion currency swap deal
- China urges citizens in Israel, Iran to evacuate
- Chinese firm signs $282 billion deal with Morocco for battery materials factory
- Egyptian, Chinese foreign ministers discuss Iran-Israel conflict
- Chinese power firm among bidders for Kuwaiti 1.1 GW solar project
- Bahraini digital services provider stc Bahrain partners with China’s Huawei
- Tunisia to receive third batch of buses from China
- Libya’s Sirte Free Zone port considers partnership with China Harbor Engineering
Thanks to Al-Monitor's Rosaleen Carroll for helping with this section.