Turkey's balancing act

Welcome back to Al-Monitor Turkey. 

Things are looking up for Ankara as its quest for Eurofighters is nearing a successful conclusion. Read all about that here, and read below for more on why Turkey remains so critical to the world’s most burning issues. 

Enjoy your weekend! 

Amberin 🐕🐾🇹🇷

@amberinzaman on X, @amberinzamanjournalist on Instagram

Follow me please 🙏

Leading the week

Ukrainian Minister of Defence Rustem Umerov speaks to the media at Ciragan Palace on July 23, 2025 in Istanbul, Turkey. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Turkey hosted talks between Iran and the EU on Friday in Istanbul, with the sides agreeing to continue to meet again to break the deadlock over Iran’s nuclear problem, marking the first time the sides have met since Iran’s 12-day war with Israel in June. Ezgi Akin, Rosaleen Carroll and Elizabeth Hagedorn provide the background here and here. 

Turkey also hosted talks between Ukraine and Russia to end their three-and-a-half-year-long war. It was a short affair with no progress on ceasefire terms, but at least they all got to spend some time in gorgeous Istanbul. 

Turkey is getting increasingly impatient with the Syrian Kurds over their refusal to cave to Damascus’ demands to integrate their forces into Syria’s new national army with nothing tangible in return. Hakan Fidan, the foreign minister, threatened military intervention in Syria, as Ezgi reported.

Syria cancelled a planned meeting between its foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, and the commander in chief of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazlum Kobane, that was set to take place in Paris on Friday. Tom Barrack, the US special envoy to Syria, and France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, were to serve as facilitators. The Syrians pulled the plug on it at the very last minute reportedly because Kobane was unwilling to cede ground on any of Syria’s demands, including, my sources say, the withdrawal of SDF forces from Deir ez-Zor, as I reported here and here. 

Barin Kayaoglu has more on Turkey's Kurdish jitters. 

Meanwhile, Shaibani and Barrack met in Paris without the Kurds, and efforts to bring the sides together are continuing, as I reported here. Still, the sides are hoping the meeting will materialize, as noted in statements made by the French and the Syrians after Friday’s talks.  

But that won't be happening any time soon, based on what my Kurdish sources tell me. In fact, SDF spokesman Farhad Shami just said that handing over their weapons was a "red line" — that it won't happen until Damascus changes its tune. The Kurds seem pretty proud of Kobane's unyielding posture, generating fun memes to portray him alternately as a tough guy and as a saint. (Contrary to the image below, Kobane does not smoke.)

Credit: X

The critical question is, of course, how Turkey's ongoing talks with its own Kurds would be affected should Damascus and the SDF come to blows at some point. The government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was touting its recent de-escalation with the Syrian Kurds as a win for which Turkey’s Kurds ought to be grateful. The other big question is whether Turkey will try to get the imprisoned PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to lean on Kobane as a last resort. 

It’s becoming increasingly clear that getting Syria’s Kurds to disarm themselves in tandem with the PKK was one of Ankara’s main goals when it embarked on its Kurdish outreach last year.  

Other top stories

Turkey is continuing to woo the Hifter clan, which controls eastern Libya, in a bid to get it to recognize the controversial maritime agreement it signed six years ago with the internationally recognized Government of National Unity. Saddam Hifter — commander of the Libyan National Army and son of LNA leader Khalifa Hifter — was in Ankara this week to meet Turkey’s defense minister, Yasar Guler. 

It’s all a bit much for the Tripoli-based government led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, who long thought he had a monopoly on Turkey’s "friendship.” Turkey is now reportedly pushing Dbeibeh to form a government of “national unity” with Hifter. As a top Libya expert, Jalel Harchaoui noted on X, “The Dbeibeh family is expected to fade gently into the good night.” Ezgi has that story here.

Turkey announced it would not be renewing a 1973 agreement with Iraq to export Iraqi crude through twin pipelines running from oil fields in Kirkuk to loading terminals on the southern Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. The Iraqis are not amused. Jack Dutton has the details.

Jack also reported on the $2.8 billion green financing package Turkey secured for building rail links from Kars to Baku.  

The long-suffering Chechens almost got rid of their vile dictator, Ramzan Kadyrov, who lost consciousness as he entered the sea for a swim on Friday at a luxury resort in Bodrum. The Turkish Coast Guard came to the rescue. The brute is said to be in stable condition.  

Nazlan Ertan guides us through the works of Armenian master ceramicist Minas now on display at the Pera Museum, then takes us for a meal at a classic Turkish restaurant that was licensed by Sultan Abdulhamid II. All that and more in her ever-delightful City Pulse Istanbul. You can sign up here.