How Beijing calculates risk in Qatar
With major energy contracts and growing commercial ties at play, Beijing’s interests in Qatar give it reason to be wary of escalation.
Hi readers,
Qatar has long been a magnet for foreign investment, but on Tuesday the Gulf state found itself under fire: Israeli airstrikes targeted Hamas leadership in Doha. This comes just months after Iran struck the US’ Al Udeid Air Base in Doha. The strikes, both this week and in June, raise questions about whether mounting instability could affect Chinese companies expanding in the Gulf and how Beijing calculates risk in Qatar.
Let’s unpack,
Rosaleen Carroll (@roscarroll_)
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Leading this week
On Tuesday, Israeli aircraft targeted Hamas' leadership in a residential building in Doha, killing six people — five affiliated with Hamas and a Qatari security officer.
Qatar condemned the attacks as a violation of its sovereignty and a setback for its role as a mediator in the Gaza conflict. China, for its part, also condemned the attack. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Wednesday that China is “deeply concerned that the attack may further heighten regional tensions.”
China’s response reflects more than run-of-the-mill diplomacy. With major energy contracts and growing commercial ties at play, Beijing’s interests in Qatar give it reason to be wary of escalation.
China’s presence in Qatar is anchored mainly in energy. In 2023, China’s CNPC signed agreements with QatarEnergy on the North Field East natural gas expansion project, securing 4 million tons of LNG annually for 27 years, along with a 1.25% stake in the project. The year before, Sinopec finalized a similar 27-year supply contract for 4 million tons of LNG a year beginning in 2026. In 2024, China imported over 18 million metric tons of Qatari LNG, around 24% of its total imports for that year, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
China’s engagement in Qatar also extends beyond energy. Here are just a few recent examples:
➡️ Last week, Chinese autonomous mobility company Pony AI announced a partnership with Mowasalat, Qatar’s largest transport provider, to roll out robotaxis on Doha’s roads, as Al-Monitor's Jack Dutton reports.
➡️ China Southern Airlines announced Monday that it will open a new direct flight linking Beijing to Doha on Oct. 16.
➡️ In May, regulators in Beijing approved Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund to acquire a 10% stake in China Asset Management Company, the country’s second-largest mutual fund.
Qatar's Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani (C) reviews a military honour guard with Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) during a welcoming ceremony in Beijing's Great Hall of the People on January 31, 2019. (GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)
The view from China
Beijing’s outlook on the strikes in Doha is likely shaped by its emphasis on stability. For China, which tends to be conflict-avoidant in its investment strategy, disruptions that complicate energy deliveries or delay investment projects could be seen as strategic risks.
China’s record elsewhere shows how it reacts when crises touch its overseas interests. During the 2011 war in Libya, for instance, Beijing organized one of its largest-ever evacuations of citizens and worked to protect its oil stakes even as the conflict dismantled much of the existing political order. In Sudan, when conflict reignited in 2023, Chinese oil companies evacuated staff and paused operations and have not resumed.
In the Red Sea, on the other hand, China has been pragmatic about the Houthi attacks, benefiting so long as its own vessels can transit safely while the militant group targets other global shipping companies. That posture is underpinned by Beijing's continued oil trade with Iran (despite US sanctions), the Houthis' main backer.
The Doha strikes are not on the scale of those conflicts, and Qatar’s economy has historically proven resilient in the face of shocks. Tuesday’s strikes, however, arrive against a backdrop of wider regional uncertainty.
The war in Gaza and the brief but intense Israel-Iran confrontation in June — which itself included Iranian strikes on the US’ Al Udeid Air Base in Doha — have shaken regional confidence. Israel's strikes on Tuesday have shown that even well-established Gulf hubs are not immune to regional tensions. Businesses may continue their usual operations in the short term, but sustained instability could prompt foreign companies, including Chinese investors, to reconsider risk, adjust plans or slow the rollout of new projects.
Photo of the week
People are seen on the Bund promenade along the Huangpu River as a full moon rises in the night sky in Shanghai on Sept. 7, 2025, hours ahead of a total lunar eclipse known as the Blood Moon. (Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images)
Deals and visits ✈️
- Syrian foreign affairs minister meets with Chinese ambassador to Syria
- Iran’s supreme leader launches Chinese-language X account
- China’s Sinopec, Saudi Aramco launch $9.8 billion petrochemical project in Fujian
- Delegation from Dubai Electricity and Water Authority visits China
- China’s Xi Jinping, Egypt’s Sisi among attendees of BRICS conference
- Chinese steel firm CSEC wins two infrastructure contracts in Morocco
- UAE released open-source AI model rivaling China’s DeepSeek
- China’s Envision Energy to supply turbines for Turkish wind power project
What we are reading
- China is ditching the dollar, fast: The Economist
- How Tokyo became an unexpected haven for China’s middle class: Financial Times
- China’s exports to Africa are soaring as trade to US plunges: The New York Times