Beijing, Damascus breaking the ice

Hi readers,  

For months, Beijing has kept Syria at arm’s length, but that may be changing. Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s planned trip to China next month suggests a potential thaw.  

That shift could boil down to a couple of key factors, namely, the easing of Western sanctions and signs that Damascus may be willing to confront the issue of foreign fighters on its soil. 

Let’s unpack.  

Rosaleen (@roscarroll)

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Leading this week

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, in an interview with state-run Alikhbaria TV on Sunday, said he will visit China in early November at Beijing’s invitation. He described the trip as an opportunity to “discuss areas of economic cooperation and China’s contribution to the reconstruction of Syria.” 

“We have redefined our relationship with China, which had politically supported the former regime of Bashar al-Assad and used its veto power on his behalf,” Shibani told Alikhbaria TV, referring to China’s use of its veto in the UN Security Council to shield Assad from condemnation and sanctions. Shibani added that Syria could use China’s support in its reconstruction, which the World Bank on Tuesday said would cost roughly $216 billion, a conservative estimate.  

Shibani's upcoming visit comes on the heels of a virtual meeting held last week between representatives from the Syrian Ministry of Transport, the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation and the China Railway Construction Corporation, during which they discussed possible transportation projects. According to Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, Minister of Transport Yarub Badr outlined his ministry's vision for partnering with China, while the Chinese companies presented technical proposals for transportation projects in Syria.  

These developments may seem incremental, but they suggest a possible turning point in the Sino-Syrian relationship.  

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (R) walks with Chinese President Hu Jintao (R), during a welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on June 22, 2004. (Frederic Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

Past ties and ongoing hesitations 

China maintained a steady relationship with Syria under President Bashar al-Assad, providing diplomatic support for him and welcoming Syria into the Belt and Road Initiative in 2022. Broad international sanctions, however, including those stemming from the United States' Caesar Act (2019), limited meaningful Chinese investment in Syria at that time. 

China’s engagement with Syria has been cautious since Assad’s ouster in December 2024. Although Beijing has dispatched delegations to meet with Syrian officials, no major agreements or reconstruction projects have been announced.  

Beijing's primary concern has been the presence of Uyghur fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) among the Syrian military now under President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Estimates from both the Syrian and Chinese governments in 2018 had roughly 2,000 to 5,000 TIP fighters in Syria, many of whom are thought to have fought alongside the Sharaa-led Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to help topple Assad and some of whom have been integrated into Syria’s new military structure, reportedly attaining senior ranks.  

In June, Reuters reported that the United States had given its nod of approval for a plan by the Syrian government to integrate some 3,500 foreign fighters into a newly formed army unit, the 84th Division. Reuters reported that most of the fighters are Uyghurs.

The Chinese leadership views the TIP as a direct security threat because of its advocacy for an independent state in Xinjiang, a primarily Uyghur province in northwestern China that for years has been subject to Chinese government repression.

What has changed?  

Shibani’s upcoming visit, coupled with the willingness of major Chinese companies to engage on transportation projects, suggests a potential recalibration in Beijing’s stance. Why might Beijing be opening up to Damascus nearly a year after Assad's ouster? 

Two key factors  

The international landscape and sanctions  ➡️  In June, the United States lifted most of its sanctions on Syria following an earlier temporary waiver for the Caesar Act. Last week, the Senate approved its version of the 2026 defense budget, which includes a provision to repeal the Caesar Act; approval by the House and the president's signature are still required. European nations, including the United Kingdom, have also taken steps to ease Syria-related restrictions, signaling increasing international normalization. On Tuesday, London removed HTS from its list of designated terrorist organizations in a bid to engage more freely with the Sharaa government. 

For China, these changes significantly lower the risk of its own economic engagement. Under Assad, US and European sanctions made large-scale reconstruction projects nearly impossible, exposing Chinese firms to secondary sanctions. The lifting of these restrictions removes a major deterrent to investment, allowing Chinese state-owned entities greater flexibility to pursue infrastructure and other reconstruction contracts in Syria, and, in doing so, secure a foothold in Syria and goodwill with the government. 

Action against foreign jihadists ➡️ On Wednesday, as Al-Monitor's Amberin Zaman reported, Syrian forces launched an operation against a francophone jihadist group in northwest Syria that sparked clashes that led to the government entering the group's camp. Foreign fighters are not just an issue from China's perspective. They have also reportedly been a source of friction for the US and European governments, which want Damascus to prevent transnational militants from regrouping on Syrian soil. In fact, one of the US conditions for lifting sanctions was that foreign fighters be blocked from senior government roles. The latest operation in the northwest could be a signal to the outside world that the Syrian government is willing and able to address the issue.

Rosaleen’s take: While Beijing will likely continue to prioritize its security concerns in regard to Uyghur militants, it can no longer afford to ignore a Syrian government that is quickly gaining international legitimacy or the broader opportunities that engagement with Damascus presents. Economically, postwar Syria offers the possibility of major infrastructure, energy and construction contracts, sectors that Chinese state-owned firms are well equipped to exploit. Geopolitically, closer ties with Damascus would expand China’s footprint in the region. Meanwhile, Syria needs partners to help shoulder its massive reconstruction bill. All these factors give China and Syria an opening to potentially reset relations, with the upcoming Shibani visit serving as a way for Beijing to test the waters. 

Photo of the week

An ACT Airlines Boeing 747-400 cargo aircraft, wet leased by Emirates SkyCargo, is seen in the sea after veering off the runway during a landing on the north runway at Hong Kong International Airport, killing two, Oct. 20, 2025. (Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images)

Deals and visits ✈️

• Moroccan carrier Royal Air Maroc and China Eastern Airlines sign MoU
• Chinese tire manufacturer to build $675 million factory in Morocco
• Four Chinese airlines sign partnership agreements with UAE’s flydubai airline
• China’s Alibaba Cloud opens second data center in UAE
• Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone signs $65 million in contracts with Chinese textile firms
• Omani business delegation visits Chinese trade fair  
• Sudan, China mark 10 years of strategic partnership agreement
• Chinese construction company begins project for 11,000 houses in Iraq
• China, Russia and Iran author letter to UN rejecting snapback sanctions on Iran

What we are reading​​

• Why China still loves its 5-year plans: Financial Times
• China’s economy holds steady, but consumers grow more cautious: The New York Times