Newsletter: China-Middle East

Why MBS' lavish US visit is not Saudi realignment away from China

For Riyadh, engagement with Beijing is not merely transactional — it is part of a multipolar strategy that enhances Saudi leverage, accelerates Vision 2030 ambitions and reduces its exposure to the unpredictability of US policy.

Joyce Karam Rosaleen Carroll
Joyce Karam , Rosaleen Carroll
Nov 20, 2025

Hi readers,

If you were in Washington this week, you couldn’t have missed the extravagant welcome President Donald Trump gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). From black horses and a military flyover to photo ops with Cristiano Ronaldo, both sides went out of their way to impress — successfully.

This was easily the grandest reception Trump has afforded any foreign leader. But for China, which remains a key backer of MBS, the visit poses little cause for concern.

Talk of a Saudi realignment as a result of the visit misses both the substance of what was achieved and the true nature of Riyadh’s partnership with Beijing.

Let’s unpack it — and happy Thanksgiving to those celebrating next week! 🦃

Joyce and Rosaleen (sign up on LinkedIn or online here)

Leading this week

It is no overstatement to say that Saudi Arabia scored major wins during his visit. Ceremonially, diplomatically and economically, the trip transformed MBS's image. Once an isolated figure — after the Jamal Khashoggi killing — he is now received as a statesman with the stature of a future king, and is highly sought after by the current resident of the Oval Office.

On paper, the Saudis were able to get:

  • F-35s ✈️: Includes future deliveries of 48 F-35 fighter jets and nearly 300 American tanks.
  • A Strategic Defense Agreement, the full details of which remain unclear, but it secures “new burden-sharing funds” from Saudi Arabia and affirms the US’ status as the kingdom’s “primary strategic partner.”
  • The designation of “major non-NATO ally,” which will streamline Saudi Arabia’s ability to acquire US military equipment and services, reducing the licensing hurdles faced by most other recipients of advanced American weaponry.
  • A memorandum of understanding on AI, which gives Saudi Arabia “access to world-leading American systems,” according to the White House.
  • A civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement, which, per the White House, confirms that US companies will be the kingdom’s “civil nuclear cooperation partners of choice” and “ensures that all cooperation will be conducted in a manner consistent with strong nonproliferation standards.” The White House did not specify what particular protocols Saudi Arabia is bound by or whether the declaration signed marks the beginning of this collaboration or is a preliminary agreement. 

  • Rare earth minerals agreement: This one is designed to counter China, especially in light of the trade war and as Beijing threatens to block these exports. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia’s total mineral reserves are valued at approximately $2.5 trillion and could help the United States in diversifying the supply chain. 

    But Saudi Arabia cannot replace China as a source of rare earth minerals due to China’s overwhelming dominance in mining and especially in refining and processing technologies. According to the Associated Press, China controls nearly 70% of global rare earth ore production and over 90% of processing capacity, making it the only country able to meet global demand at scale. The complex refining process, lack of existing industrial infrastructure and delays in bringing Saudi projects online mean it will be years before the kingdom can fulfill a meaningful global supply role. 

➡️ The United States also got Saudi Arabia to up its investment pledge of $600 billion — first pledged during Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May — to $1 trillion, largely in AI and other advanced technologies. 

While significant, those promises still fell short of a full mutual defense pact that would obligate the United States to come to Saudi Arabia’s aid in the event of attack, a comprehensive nuclear agreement with clear, binding safeguards and cycle limitations, and progress toward a normalization agreement with Israel. 

💭 Why these developments don’t signal a Saudi realignment away from China

🔵 The kingdom’s engagement with China represents a deliberate strategy to diversify its partnerships and maintain flexibility. From the moment MBS was appointed in 2017, China was quick to embrace him. The Saudi leader visited Beijing in 2016 as deputy crown prince at the time, and then again in 2019. He hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Riyadh in 2022 and quickly embraced the Chinese authoritarian model in ruling the kingdom. In the aftermath of the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, China was careful not to condemn Saudi Arabia and stuck with its position of noninterference.

In aftermath and as MBS was being labeled a pariah by US leaders, China brokered a Saudi-Iran deal, expanded investment in Neom and doubled down on its backing of the young prince. 

🔵 For MBS, engagement with Beijing is not merely transactional — it is part of a multipolar strategy that enhances Saudi leverage, accelerates Vision 2030 ambitions and reduces its exposure to the unpredictability of US policy. According to the Financial Times, China has emerged as the top source of greenfield foreign direct investment in Saudi Arabia, contributing $21.6 billion between 2021 and October 2024, largely in clean technology projects.

🔵 China has also been Saudi Arabia’s biggest trading partner since 2013, with bilateral trade surpassing $100 billion in 2023.

Even militarily, the two sides have held three naval exercises: in 2019, 2023 and 2025.

Last week, the New York Times, citing Pentagon officials, reported US defense and intelligence officials have raised concerns that F-35 technology could be passed to China, particularly given China’s close ties with Saudi Arabia. Similar worries led the Biden administration in 2021 to suspend a planned F-35 sale to the United Arab Emirates over the possibility that China might gain access to the aircraft’s sensitive technology. 

Our take: There’s no question that the crown prince’s visit strengthens Saudi-US ties and may reduce Riyadh’s reliance on China in areas such as technology and AI. However, that alone does not amount to a strategic realignment.

The volatility of US politics continues to make a more predictable China an appealing partner for MBS. Riyadh is not likely to concede that leverage — especially without treaty-level commitments or concrete security and technology guarantees from Washington. Neither of those materialized during this visit.

Photo of the week

US President Donald Trump (R) welcomes Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia during an arrival ceremony at the White House on Nov. 18, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Deals and visits ✈️

 

What we are reading​​​

  • Chinese spies are using LinkedIn to target UK lawmakers: New York Times
  • China snaps up US soybeans, reviving hope for Iowa farmers: Axios
  • The growing problem with China's unreliable numbers: FT
  • China's C919 takes to Dubai skies in bid to win over Gulf buyers: Reuters