The Iran nuclear deal China wants

Hi readers, 

Beijing and Moscow deployed naval vessels to the Strait of Hormuz this week for joint drills with Iran as Washington weighs its military options and nuclear talks remain in flux.

China’s preference is to keep the standoff contained, favoring a negotiated nuclear framework that could ease sanctions while preserving stability in Tehran.

Let’s unpack, and to those celebrating, happy Year of the Horse! 新年快乐 🧧 

Rosaleen and Joyce (sign up here)

Leading this week

As Al-Monitor's Beatrice Farhat reported, Russia, China and Iran deployed vessels to the Strait of Hormuz to take part in a joint maritime exercise scheduled for later this month, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday, as the three countries deepen naval coordination amid a United States military buildup in the region.

The drills are another symbolic move from Beijing, indicating that it stands behind Iran and against military escalation in the Gulf. 

➡️ China’s ideal outcome is a US-Iran nuclear deal that protects energy flows and keeps the Iranian regime in the game rather than under threat. China is Iran’s largest trade partner and purchaser of its oil despite sanctions. According to data analytics firm Kpler, China bought more than 80% of Iran’s oil in 2025.

After the latest round of talks in Geneva, American and Iranian officials reached an agreement on “guiding principles," according to Iran's foreign minister. A US official told Al-Monitor’s Elizabeth Hagedorn that “the Iranians said they would come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals to address some of the open gaps in our positions.” This is good news for China, but only if it’s translated into an actual framework within the next two weeks. 

China supported the 2015 JCPOA and has pushed for its revival or replication, arguing in 2020 that the agreement served as a safeguard for the international non‑proliferation regime and should be the reference point for any new talks. On enrichment, China’s line is that Iran has a right to peaceful nuclear technology as a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but must comply with International Atomic Energy Agency oversight and negotiated limits. It backed the JCPOA arrangements that allowed Iran to enrich at low levels (around the single‑digit percent range) so long as stockpiles, centrifuge types and facilities were strictly monitored and restricted. It has not endorsed the "zero enrichment" demand favored by Israel and the United States. 

Regarding wider nonnuclear issues that the US hopes will be on the table (if not now, then later), here is where China stands:

➡️ Ballistic missiles: China’s involvement in Iran’s missile program dates back to the years after the Iran-Iraq war, when Tehran looked to foreign partners to help advance its missile program. Beijing supplied early short‑range ballistic, cruise and anti‑ship missiles. As Iran has built up its domestic missile production capacity, Beijing’s role has mostly been one of technical support rather than large-scale sales.  

In April 2025, the US Treasury Department sanctioned six Chinese entities and six individuals for providing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with propellant ingredients used to produce fuel for missile motors. In December, the Wall Street Journal reported that US officials intercepted a cargo ship bound for Iran from China that was carrying dual‑use conventional weapons components. 

➡️ Proxies: China stays away from criticizing Iran for backing proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen. Officially, Beijing sticks to talking points about sovereignty, noninterference and dialogue, without naming Tehran or its proxies. This stance lets China avoid getting drawn into debates over Iran’s proxy network.

Our take: China favors a revived or rebranded nuclear agreement that restores inspections and caps on enrichment and sees phased sanctions relief that unlocks Iranian oil and infrastructure projects for Chinese companies. At the same time, China is watching the US military's buildup near Iran and recognizes that President Donald Trump could authorize strikes against Iran if no deal is reached. If that happens, Beijing will likely stay on the sidelines, as it did in June, while hoping that the regime survives another war. 

Photo of the week

A performer participates in a parade as people visit a temple fair on the second day of the Lunar New Year of the Horse in Beijing on Feb. 18, 2026. (Photo by Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images)

Deals and visits ✈️

• Chinese, Iranian and Russian envoys hold talks with IAEA chief in Vienna
• Saudi-Chinese joint committee on major projects and energy meets
• Deputy ruler of UAE’s Sharjah visits Huawei R&D center in Shanghai
• Libya's Ministry of Industry and Minerals holds talks with China’s Goodwill Ceramic on establishing cement plant
• UAE’s Emirates airline signs partnership agreement with China’s Loong Air
• China’s Oil HBP Group secures $225 million contract at Iraq’s Naft Khana oilfield
• Abu Dhabi to host China Visitors Summit in May
• China to eliminate import tariffs on goods from Morocco, Egypt

What we are reading​​​

• Is this a ‘very Chinese time in your life’? The trend boosting China’s soft power: BBC
• Former prince Andrew agreed to help strike $8B cash-for-oil deal between UAE and China: Financial Times
• US hardens allegation that China conducted a secret nuclear test: The Wall Street Journal