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Deterrence vs. stability: Saudi Arabia’s dilemma

Repeated Iranian strikes on Riyadh's diplomatic, civilian and energy infrastructure are reinforcing the kingdom's apparent need to reassert deterrence.

A plume of smoke rises after a reported Iranian strike on fuel tanks in Muharraq on March 12, 2026. (Fadhel MADHAN / AFP via Getty Images)

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Saudi Arabia is being drawn deeper into a conflict it did not initiate and can no longer contain. After expelling Iranian officials and warning that its patience is “not unlimited,” Riyadh now faces a core dilemma: how to reestablish deterrence without sparking a broader regional escalation.

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Francesco

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