Can Turkey-Saudi-Pakistan defense pact deter Iran?

Welcome back to AL-MONITOR Turkey for a summary of the week’s big stories and what’s on our radar. We had a really bombshell week with the announcement of the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish defense pact, which says that an attack on one is viewed as an attack on all. I was frankly more excited by the news that Egyptian football legend Mohamed Salah signed with Turkey’s Trabzonspor this week, leaving Liverpool behind.

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Amberin

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@amberinzaman on X, @amberinzamanjournalist on Instagram

Leading the week

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) welcomes Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) during an official ceremony at the Presidential Complex, Ankara, June 22, 2022. — ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images

Yeah, so big news on yet another Saudi-centered defense alliance, which some are calling the Sunni Pact.

It was signed in Mecca, where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman apparently prayed together. It was a Friday at the Prophet Muhammad’s birthplace, after all.

I tried to explain here, based on convos with regional officials and experts, what the message, limits and opportunities of the agreement are. Turkey is a pretty big catch for the Saudis, with NATO’s second-largest army and a growing menu of weapons and other military kit that it produces and exports, as Ezgi Akin reported here.

The week’s other big story centered on the amnesty law stemming from long months of wrangling between Turkey and jailed Kurdistan Workers Party leader Abdullah Ocalan. As we say in Turkish, the mountain bore a mouse. But with no better alternatives on hand, the Kurds are going along with it, as I explained here. You can also take a look at my interview with The Amargi on the same topic.

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Shibani was in Ankara on Thursday to update his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, and Turkish spy chief Ibrahim Kalin on how Syria’s Kurds are progressing with their demobilization and integration with the Syrian national armed forces. Not fast enough, Shibani likely told his hosts, according to my sources.

Kalin also met with a Libyan delegation amid continued US efforts to unify Libya’s rival factions, as Ezgi reported. She also had an excellent explainer on recent efforts by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to revive long-dormant — think Rip Van Winkle — peace talks between the Turkish and Greek Cypriots. You won’t yawn, I promise.

Barin Kayaoglu analyzed Turkey’s warmer ties with Egypt and Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who enjoys the support of both countries in his ongoing war against the UAE-backed Rapid Support Forces. It’s the perfect bookend to our story on the Mecca defense agreement.

Also on our radar

Always read Nazlan Ertan’s brilliant Istanbul City Pulse newsletter, to which you can subscribe here. It never fails to lift my spirits, as it reminds me that Turkey is so much richer and more interesting than the endless hot takes on its geopolitical heft.

Apropos appreciating the finer things, check out this video of a Kurdish Turkish singer I just discovered on Instagram. Her name is Gulay Begtas and she sings like an angel.

The Daily Telegraph of London had an interesting if snarky piece about Salah’s defection to Turkey.

And another British broadsheet, the Guardian, had an excellent one about how the UK is dumping its waste in Turkey, leaving locals to cope with toxic smoke, microplastics and debris.

And for your weekly dose of nutty legal cases in the age of Erdogan, this one about Turkish woman photographer Bennu Gerede detained on obscenity charges because she talked about vibrators on TV takes the cake.