On April 28, in a letter to Ibrahim al-Jaafari, head of the Iraq National Alliance, four of Iraq’s top political leaders said they would move to withdraw confidence against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in the Iraqi Council of Representatives (parliament) within 15 days if Maliki did not accept their nine-point ultimatum.

The letter, signed in Erbil by Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani, Speaker of the Council of Representatives Usama al-Nujayfi, Iraq National Movement (Iraqiyya) head Ayad Allawi and Muqtada al-Sadr, calls on Maliki to adhere to the “principles and framework” of a more democratic approach to governance or face parliamentary action to unseat him. 

A vote of no confidence is, however, a numbers game in the Iraqi parliament, and the numbers are not there without Sadr, who has made clear, despite his appearance in Erbil, that he is not on board with any effort to depose Maliki.

According to the Iraqi Constitution, the president of Iraq would need to submit a request to the parliament to withdraw confidence from the prime minister. An inquiry would follow, and then a motion to withdraw confidence would be requested by one-fifth (65) of the representatives. Confidence is withdrawn, and the government deemed resigned, if a majority of parliamentarians (at least 163 out of 325) vote with the motion. Iraqiiya controls perhaps 86-89 votes, and the Kurdish Alliance has 43 members. Even if some other parliamentarians join their efforts, they are not close to the 163 needed for a vote of no confidence without the 40 members of the Sadr movement.