Change in Iran Depends on New Reformers Linked to Conservatives
Change in Iran from the presidential elections will depend on new reformers, with links to the conservative movement, and who can pump new energy into the regime, writes Ali Mamouri.
This Iranian presidential election cycle differs from those of the past in that the scene is characterized by ambiguity. There is a conflict of a different form and content, and a lack of enthusiasm concerning participation among the public. Reformists are still hesitant to offer up an official candidate, given that they are not optimistic that their candidate would be accepted by the Council of Guardians or about the potential for fair elections. The conservative current — which had previously gathered around Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — has witnessed a large split that has divided its supporters among four rivals. They are completely removed from Ahmadinejad, who remains alone among his enemies, the reformists, and his former friends, the conservatives.
The conservative current
It was expected that Ahmadinejad would use all of his strength to nominate his close, controversial friend [Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei], despite all the explicit criticism from within the conservative current and from Ayatollah Khamenei personally. The president began campaigning for Mashaei via official visits to the country's provinces, and held an official ceremony for him in Azadi Stadium in Tehran.
Competition between coalitions and division has escalated in light of an absence of indicators about the supreme leader's opinion. He was content with merely providing a general vision in his last speech given to those officials charged with setting up elections. Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, Ali Akbar Velayati and Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel have announced a coalition and they are expected to agree on a single candidate, despite the emergence of some signs of conflict in recent days. This increases the likelihood that the coalition will break up ahead of the elections.
