The recent events in Egypt conjure up images of Tahrir Square two years ago. In what felt like déjà vu, millions of Egyptians flooded the streets of Cairo and other major cities this past week, demanding the removal of President Mohammed Morsi from office. And with striking similarity to how things unfolded in 2011, the Egyptian military obliged the protesters and forced out a sitting president.
But these similarities notwithstanding, it is dangerous to carry the comparison between what happened this past week and the events of 2011 too far. Despite some surface similarities, the situations themselves are quite distinct. As Washington fashions a response to the current situation, it needs to better understand the differences between 2011 and the present, and ponder what they mean for the future of Egypt.
One of the main contrasts is that while in 2011 the toppling of then-president Hosni Mubarak by the military occurred before the protests could crescendo into a full-fledged revolution, today the situation in Egypt is politically ripe for a revolutionary moment. That is because the secular groups who were trumped by the religious groups in 2011 and marginalized by Morsi are now in a much stronger position to flex their muscles as the political process unfolds.
Understanding why Egypt may be at the precipice of a revolution today requires us to first dispel some popular misconceptions about what transpired in 2011 and in the aftermath of Mubarak’s fall. The first popular misconception was that Mubarak was deposed by the protesters. It wasn’t the demands of protesters in Tahrir Square alone that brought Mubarak down. Cleavages that had already developed between Mubarak and his military command prior to the protests also contributed to his demise. Even before the convulsive events of 2011, the military had started to become uncomfortable with Mubarak over his arbitrary anointment of his son Gamal as his successor. While the protest movement was certainly a catalyst, cracks had already started to form in the regime’s foundation.
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