The Saudi succession question

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — The recent royal decree appointing Prince Muqrin bin Abdelaziz as deputy crown prince, thus guaranteeing his eventual rise to the throne, has reassured many Saudis about their leadership for the near future, but it has not dispelled their concerns about the monarchy’s long-term stability.

Saudis gave the announcement a “welcome reaction,” said Asaad al-Shamlan of the Institute of Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh. “It’s provided some kind of certainty regarding the succession and medium-term stability.” Nevertheless, the decree’s unusual disclosure that the king’s decision was approved by three-quarters of the princes consulted, along with its strong insistence that the decision “may not be modified or changed in any way or form by any person whoever it may be,” left lingering concerns about how firmly the king’s decision was accepted within the royal family. Who, Saudis wonder, are the rejecting 25%?

“The interesting thing is that they announced the percentage of votes for Muqrin,” said a Saudi university English lecturer. “Usually, they would not announce that there are objections.” While the House of Saud has a history of being pragmatic and of closing ranks behind a consensus, many Saudis fear potentially rancorous infighting as members of the younger, second generation of princes vie to assume the reins of power. Muqrin’s projected ascension to someday become king now means that that day of reckoning is further postponed.

Shamlan suggested that fears of infighting had been overblown. He noted that the king’s decision did not leak prior to its March 27 announcement despite a pocket of rejectionists. That, he added, is “indicative of some cohesion in the royal family.” An academic who closely follows royal politics and asked to remain anonymous wrote in an email that Saudis “are reassured for the time being, but there is a sense of concern about the future.”