Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) has consistently failed to dispel the impression of a party in a state of total disarray with little chance of holding power. Its lackluster results in the March 30 local elections, especially in the large metropolitan areas and at a time when the ruling party was the target of a graft probe, threw it further into the doldrums.

As if that report card were not troubling enough, Orhan Oven, a member of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) punched CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the face on April 8 in parliament. The AKP quickly expelled him. Weeks later, on April 22, Bilal Erdogan, son of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, filed a libel lawsuit against Kilicdaroglu, and the police attempted to arrest Safak Pavey, CHP deputy chairman, during May Day celebrations in Istanbul. Thus, the CHP continues to fail in rallying people behind it, and appears cursed in its opposition to the AKP. 

While partly agreeing with this outlook, Aykan Erdemir, a junior CHP deputy from Bursa, also argues that this is not the entire picture.

“One has to admit that Prime Minister Erdogan skillfully manages the public’s perceptions, but the fact of the matter is that this [March 30] election signaled that the era of single-party government is nearing an end,” Erdemir told Al-Monitor. “Konda [a well-known public survey group] had shown the AKP not long ago receiving the support of 55% of the people. They started to lose that support gradually, due to their troubling education system reforms, Syria policy, Gezi park protests and the Dec. 17 graft probe.”