Barring extraordinary developments in Turkey, we can safely predict that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be the Justice and Development Party (AKP) candidate in the August presidential elections. While Erdogan of course wants to win in the first round of voting, to avoid an uncertain runoff, this might not be easy for him to accomplish. Even if one takes into consideration absentee ballots from abroad and votes from two small conservative nationalist parties likely to support Erdogan, he is still unlikely to receive more than 50% of the vote in the first round. Thus, the Kurdish factor enters the equation.
If Erdogan wants to be elected in the first round, he needs Kurdish votes. Such votes, however, do not come for free. The kind of victory Erdogan wants requires that he meet some of the Kurds' demands and provide convincing promises for others yet to come. This cannot be disputed. In the first round of balloting, Kurds hold the key for Erdogan. If the election goes to a second round, the Kurds' cards will not be as strong, because Erdogan will have the votes of the National Action Party's conservative Sunni base, making his need for Kurdish votes less desperate.
Kurds are not only the key to Erdogan's victory, but they are also in a position of strength, free to play their aces as they wish. Why? Just like other parties, for the candidates of the Kurdish movement to win parliament seats or mayoral posts in local and general elections, they need an atmosphere of calm and stability. But in the presidential elections, the Kurds don’t need to worry about preserving calm and stability, because the Kurdish candidate who runs in the first round has no chance of winning. To the contrary, it is Erdogan who needs calm and stability for the campaign and election process.
The Kurdish movement, which is perfectly aware of these realities, recently ramped up its pressure on the AKP government and its activism to best use the window of opportunity offered by the presidential election. In this context, two major developments happened in the Kurdish-dominated southeast of the country.
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