On Aug. 10, Turkey will go to the polls to choose its first “people’s president.” That is, for the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic, the president will be elected by popular vote. Unlike general or municipal elections, this election presents an opportunity for “direct representation”; that is, all votes cast anywhere will have the same weight, and all candidates will receive the exact number of votes cast for them only.

In general elections with a 10% threshold — the minimum vote required to secure representation — millions of votes cast for small parties that don't pass the threshold are essentially redistributed among the big winners. This process has magnified the vote and seat share of big winners in the Turkish parliament. In addition, in this election, for the first time diaspora Turks will be able to cast votes. These three factors make the upcoming election or elections (should the vote go to a second round) even more interesting to watch.

The process of “direct representation” makes identity a more crucial factor as well. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) has taken pride that — through its promises of democratization and strengthening personal rights and freedoms — it has attracted votes from across the board. “We receive 50% of the Kurdish votes” has been a potent statement quite frequently repeated by AKP officials and mainstream media alike.

There is one group AKP has approached several times unsuccessfully: the Alevis. In the last three years, the AKP has lost the little Alevi support it might have had following its foreign policy failure in Syria and its handling of the Gezi protests. (All the fatalities of Gezi were young Alevis). Lacking accurate information on the number of Alevis in Turkey, we could report that numbers range from 7 million to 13 million.