Mutual deterrence achieved between Israel, Gaza
For the first time in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Israeli establishment will have to think twice before it embarks on what used to be an “easy war” against the Palestinians.
The extremely harsh way in which Israel executed its war on Gaza had one basic goal: deterrence. Although Israel might have partially succeeded in its deterrence strategy, an unexpected result was born during the war: mutual deterrence.
The strong and continuous Palestinian rocket response to the Israeli aggression did not cease until the very last moment before each cease-fire announcement. Israeli expectations that Hamas and the other resistance groups would simply run out of rockets or voluntarily refrain from firing them never materialized. On the last day of the war, Hamas broadened its attacks, using a new, previously unused element in its arsenal. The rockets fired from the Gaza Strip up until that point had not contained warheads. When Israel escalated its bombardments by bringing down 13- and 14-story buildings, the Palestinian fighters notched up their attacks by adding warheads to their rockets.
The birth of this mutual deterrence means that both sides, not just the Palestinians, will have to think long and hard before deciding to attack the other. It also means that the demands of the Palestinian people (not just Hamas), which will be negotiated after a month of quiet, cannot be brushed aside as before. In 2012, the Israelis had agreed to facilitate movement of people and goods, effectively lifting the siege, but once the attacks stopped, they reneged on their promises.
This time, Palestinians believe a failure to take their demands seriously risks a renewal of fighting. The drop in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity among Israelis — from a high of 82% during the first days of the war to 38% by war's end — will be a deterrent to any Israeli official thinking about entering into what used to be considered an "easy war." The Palestinian public is aware of this newfound power. A survey by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion showed that 75% of surveyed Palestinians believe that the deterrence capacity of the resistance has increased as a result of the war.
