The presidential elections in Turkey will make history on Aug. 10 with quite a few “first-time” occurrences. For the first time, Turkish citizens living abroad are allowed to cast their votes in the country where they reside. Previously, they could vote only at the Turkish customs gates when leaving the country. A new regulation, announced on May 18, 2012, allows all Turkish citizens in possession of a Turkish identity card to vote at Turkish embassies or consulates abroad — in 54 countries at 103 locations. Voters would have to register for an appointment or would be assigned an appointment by an automatic system to cast their ballots. The dates for expats for the first voting round began on July 31 and ended on Aug. 3.

According to Turkish law, citizens are automatically registered to vote once they have reached the age of 18. About 53 million Turkish citizens are expected to vote on Aug. 10, while the potential expat votes are about 2.8 million. Considering there are three candidates, and expat voters add up to almost 5% of the total voter base, expat votes could significantly affect the outcome. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) pushed this new voting regulation precisely for this reason.

On Aug. 4, however, Deputy Prime Minister Emrullah Isler announced that from the eligible Turkish voters abroad only about 5%, or 232,000 expats, turned out to vote. This was surprising news to say the least. Votes cast abroad are sent to Ankara to be counted along with the votes cast in Turkey on Aug. 10 — at which time an official figure for expat voting will become known. Expats may also cast their vote at any of the customs gates until election day, while entering or exiting Turkey. Isler emphasized that by the end of the process, he estimates about 17-18% of expats will have cast a ballot. Hence, it appears that 80% of Turkish expats are not all that affectionate about Erdogan. This is a “difficult pill to swallow” for the AKP elites. The dismal results are a disappointment for all parties and their leaders, but particularly for the ruling party.

Since early February, Al-Monitor has been reporting on Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s campaign trips to various European countries. Particularly in Germany, where about 1.4 million Turkish expat voters reside, and Austria, the AKP has worked diligently to rally Turkish expatriates. The other two presidential candidates — Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu and Selahattin Demirtas — campaigned in Europe, too. Several Turkish media pundits called the preliminary results of the vote abroad “a total fiasco,” given the amount of effort and resources spent to urge expat voting. Why didn't more than 20% of Turkish expats turn out to vote? Considering the traditionally high levels of voter turnout in Turkey, how can the low voter turnout be explained?