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Can Islamic State keep control of Mosul?

The wide Sunni sympathy for the Islamic State in Mosul cracked less than two months into its occupation, and residents are increasingly horrified by rampant arrests and executions.

Residents shop at a market in the city of Mosul June 17, 2014. The United States is contemplating talks with its arch-enemy Iran to support the Iraqi government in its battle with Sunni Islamist insurgents who routed Baghdad's army and seized the north of the country in the past week.  Picture taken June 17, 2014. REUTERS/Stringer (IRAQ - Tags: CIVIL UNREST POLITICS SOCIETY TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY) - RTR3UL3P
Residents shop at a market in the city of Mosul, June 17, 2014. — REUTERS

The most credible story available today about the Islamic State (IS) occupation of Mosul on June 9 reads that IS occupied Mosul several years before that date and has long ruled it as a state within the state. Al-Qaeda and IS have been present in Mosul since 2006, when they took control of it by force, according to reports published by Western and Arab news outlets.

But IS is losing Mosul before officially leaving it. The residents of Mosul are starting to reject IS and its activities, after first turning to the group to free them of the Iraqi army and the central government’s practices.

At the beginning of November, the Mosul wali (leader), IS' Dar al-Ifta official Quasi Abdul Mohsen, issued a circular that caught the attention of IS-affiliated media outlets. The document was initially published via “media points” — basically booths placed across the city's neighborhoods in which TVs broadcast IS-related videos — and subsequently shared on news and social media pages with ties to IS.

The circular mainly focused on preventing the arrest of any citizen in Mosul in the absence of a warrant signed by the Sharia judge. It read that sanctions would be imposed in the event of any violation fo this dictate.

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