Reversals in Vienna throw deal into doubt
As negotiators try to finalize a nuclear deal, it seems differences within the P5+1 may push them past the deadline once again.
As journalists were preparing July 9 for the possible good news that a nuclear deal had been reached, three foreign ministers turned the situation upside down. “The last 100 meters of the marathon are the hardest,” said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius. US Secretary of State John Kerry made it clear there was progress but insisted that the talks were “not open-ended,” adding that US President Barack Obama told him his negotiating team could not stay there forever. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted, “We're working hard, but not rushed, to get the job done. Mark my words: You can't change horses in the middle of a stream.”
As the last sentence by Zarif stirred controversy, reporters started searching for the right meaning of the idiom the Iranian minister used. The common understanding was that something important changed in the middle of the talks, something that risks the whole process. A senior Iranian source told Al-Monitor, “What happened is that the Western parties have been shifting and hardening positions since Wednesday [July 8] night.” He added, “The main problem was that they needed much [more] time to negotiate among themselves than negotiating with Iran, they had several meetings together to agree on their red lines, their red lines differ from one country to another, and they want Iran to take into consideration their differences.”
The main problem hindering the talks is the UN Security Council resolution that should be issued after the announcement of the deal. The resolution contains details over the lifting of sanctions and the restrictions to be applied to Iran during the coming years and will consist of several pages and annexes. Both parties have so far failed in reaching a consensus over the wording, and there are yet points to be agreed on before it can be finalized.
A Western diplomat told Al-Monitor that the situation changed in the past two days. “Things have changed in Washington, not in Vienna,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. He said, “There’s a mounting pressure from lobbies opposed to the deal; they used all possible means to convince President Obama to interfere and advise his team not to rush for a deal. He gave them new instructions." The diplomat added, “Days ago the deal was too big to fail; now, it's up to Iran to take it or leave it. Only days ago the US had a different approach, and some partners within the P5+1 were blaming them for being so easy with the Iranian side.”
