Israel lacks 'day after Abbas' plan
Israel is unprepared for the possibility of PA President Mahmoud Abbas quitting his post, especially considering that his most likely heir is Marwan Barghouti, presently serving a life sentence in an Israeli prison.
A wave of rumors and news reports has swept Israel and its environs regarding the possible imminent resignation of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Palestinian Authority (PA) officials and associates of Abbas vehemently deny the rumor, saying that this is yet another stage in the psychological war being waged by Israel against the president. The word in Israel is that these news tidbits are being disseminated by Abbas’ adversaries from within, and there are plenty of those. It is important to remember that this may be simply more of the same: News of the imminent departure of the PA’s chairman has been bandied about in the past, and there were even times when Abbas himself leaked information and fueled the whispers. Yet the furor has always ended with him remaining in the PA headquarters in Ramallah, alive and kicking.
This time, it seems, the stories have more substance. Until recently, when senior officials of the Israeli defense establishment were asked about Abbas’ imminent resignation, they answered with a resounding no. But this has been changing over recent weeks. A very highly placed Israeli security source told Al-Monitor last week on condition of anonymity, “This time, the news tidbits about an anticipated resignation are more substantiated than in the past. They are also backed by intelligence evidence. Abbas has many reasons to resign. He also has reasons to remain. We get the impression that this time it’s more serious, though I wouldn’t commit myself yet.”
Another Israeli source, a veteran member of the defense establishment, echoed this opinion on condition of anonymity. “This time, all the indications point to the real possibility of Abbas actually stepping down. He has no diplomatic horizon, things aren’t progressing at all and the Palestinians have lost international attention and awareness. Abbas is over 80 years old and he’s starting to get sick and tired of it all. He is deliberating about giving notice, but has not yet made his final decision. We shouldn’t reject the possibility out of hand that he’ll actually do it at the end of the year. Nevertheless, as we have already learned, you can’t predict anything in the Middle East, not even a week in advance.”
The sources quoted here are part of the Defense Ministry apparatus with all its various branches and intelligence organizations. Within the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the outlook is different. Brig. Gen. Tamir Yadai, commander of the IDF’s Judea and Samaria Brigade, said something very different last week in a briefing to the press: “Our assessment is that President Mahmoud Abbas will remain in his post.”
