Turkey prepares for G-20 conference, but will it be its last?
Turkey, preparing to host G-20 leaders, faces the danger of losing its place in the G-20 because of declining national income. Will its strategic location keep it in?
Turkey will host leaders of the 20 largest economies of the world at the G-20 summit in November. But there is a predicament as Turkey faces the danger of losing its place among the top 20 national income countries. Fortunately, Turkey's position on the list will be determined by national income figures at the end of 2015.
Former Undersecretary of the Treasury Mahfi Egilmez reminded us that in 2014 Turkey’s gross domestic product regressed from $823 billion to $806 billion, and its place in the top 20 list dropped to 18 from 17.
Predictions for 2015 are worse. Egilmez noted that if the dollar, which was 2.30 Turkish lira at the beginning of the year, ends the year being worth 3 Turkish lira, then the average parity for the year will be 2.65 Turkish lira and the national income will slump to about $726 billion.
If the dollar parity goes above 3 Turkish lira at the end of this year, then Turkey’s national income will sink to below $700 billion, making Turkey the weakest link of the G-20.
