Russia's military deployment and air operations in Syria surprised many leaders, none more so than those in Turkey, when it became obvious that the onslaught would not be aimed against the Islamic State. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — following a visit to Moscow on Sept. 23 and a subsequent statement that he was prepared to closely cooperate with Russia in every field — should not have been so surprised. It is apparent, however, that the perception of decision-makers in Ankara varied greatly from the realities on the ground.

What has Ankara lost with the Russian intervention? Moscow, with the kiss of life it has given the Bashar al-Assad regime, put an end to Turkey’s hope of “Syria without Assad.” It also reinforced the idea that the armed groups considered the “moderate opposition” in Syria — groups supported by Turkey — are actually terrorist organizations. The air superiority Russia has imposed over western and southern Syria dashed Ankara's hopes for a no-fly zone over northern Syria. According to Arda Mevlutoglu, an independent security analyst, Russia's moves also ended the debate about establishing a safe zone in northern Syria. 

Mevlutoglu told Al-Monitor, “To set up such zones, above all, requires air superiority. Any move toward such zones will henceforth run the risk of confrontation with Russian planes and a possible clash.” He stressed that Russia's actions have seriously rankled NATO and noted that any active or passive measures NATO might adopt in Syria could carry the risk of directly confronting the Russian military. Without a doubt, this situation will only add to discord within NATO over Syria.

Russia’s increasing visibility in Syrian air space means the Turkish military, especially the air force, already struggling against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey and northern Iraq, will be under heavy pressure on the Turkey-Syria border, and many more sleepless nights await the high command in Ankara. Adding to the already-tense situation are Turkey's claim that a Russian Su-30 violated Turkish airspace in the Hatay region Oct. 3 and reports that a Russian or Syrian MiG-29 had locked its radar on Turkish F-16s on an interception mission.