The IDF's Hebron dilemma
The IDF must face a shift in the current violence wave, where Hebron takes the lead alongside East Jerusalem, as both have a high level of daily friction between Jews and Palestinians and constant religious tension.
Ever since the outbreak of the current wave of terror, and despite Israel’s insistence that this is not an intifada but a transient wave, the defense establishment has been trying to analyze what motivates young people to set out every day to carry out attacks in Israel. It strives to profile the rank-and-file terrorist and map out the areas that are considered to be the centers of the popular uprising. Analyzing the characteristics of this wave of terror, which has been taking place without the umbrella of the Palestinian organizations and even as an act of defiance against them, military intelligence and Shin Bet research departments are expected to provide top military brass and senior Shin Bet officials with general guidelines as to how to curb this wave of assailants.
Unlike the second intifada (2000-2005), the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) this time do not have clear targets that can be labeled as centers for planning and executing attacks. Consequently, all the combative terms — strike, destroy, deter, thwart — become useless. Because there are no wanted terrorists and there is no terrorist infrastructure that can be specifically designated, the IDF has no choice but to resort to a defensive strategy.
This started by deploying large forces and setting up barriers and roadblocks in East Jerusalem’s neighborhoods, where most of the assailants came from during the initial stages of this wave of terror. Now it seems that the center of the popular uprising has shifted to Hebron. Both places — Hebron and East Jerusalem — are sensitive and volatile centers, and every well-trained intelligence researcher can define what motivates their residents to carry out attacks in Israel.
On Nov. 2, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center published a detailed analysis that attempted to establish a uniform profile of the terrorists who have been perpetrating the attacks since the beginning of October 2015. The institute’s researchers collected information about every attack that was carried out in recent weeks in Israel — who did it, their age, gender and area they came from. An analysis of the incidents suggested that as of the date of the report’s publication, 31 out of 35 terrorists (nearly 90%) hailed from East Jerusalem and Hebron. The researchers account for this by noting that these two cities are both under constant political, social and religious tension between Israelis and Palestinians. Both places are home to holy sites for Judaism and Islam — the Temple Mount (aka Haram al-Sharif) and the Cave of the Patriarchs. In both cities, the level of friction between the Palestinians and the Israeli population runs high because they live side by side, in nearby streets and neighborhoods.
