No concessions to al-Qaeda allies at Geneva talks

In a potentially encouraging sign, the High Negotiations Committee, the Saudi-backed Syrian umbrella opposition group, has agreed to attend the UN-mediated Geneva peace conference. The committee is saying, however, that it will not meet with the government delegation until the Syrian military ceases bombardment of rebel-held areas and lifts the siege of opposition-controlled towns. UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura will shuttle between the delegations in what are deemed “proximity” talks.

According to press accounts, the United States and Russia seem to agree on the broad outline of a two-year transition plan that envisages moderate Syrian opposition political figures and fighters merging with the Syrian state over several years, with the question of the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad deferred until the end of the transition. The United States and Russia still publicly disagree on whether Assad should stay or go at the end of the transition.

While we continue to support de Mistura’s diplomacy and are encouraged by the committee’s willingness to participate in the Geneva talks, the key trend to watch is actually in Syria, where last week government forces, backed by Russian air power, achieved significant gains in the strategic Latakia region. In addition, this column recently explained how Aleppo is the bridge to an endgame in Syria. Just this week, Syrian armed groups, including Ahrar al-Sham and other rebel forces, joined with Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria, to rally against advances by the Syrian military and its allies around Aleppo.