Why Israel is keeping a close eye on Iran’s parliamentary elections

Israel's response to the lifting of sanctions on Iran was typically acrimonious. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Jan. 17, “Israel will monitor the implementation of the deal and will notify of any violation.” He added that Tehran “has not abandoned its aspirations to acquire nuclear weapons and continues to act to destabilize the Middle East and spread terrorism throughout the world, in violation of its international commitments.”

Netanyahu doesn't really trust the international community, including the United States, to keep meticulous track of how Iran implements the commitments it made in the nuclear deal. At his induction ceremony, Netanyahu’s new Mossad chief Yossi Cohen declared that the risks inherent in a post-nuclear agreement Iran are even greater than before. As far as Netanyahu is concerned, Israel is the last watchdog defending the free world from Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Most opinions among Israel’s defense establishment and the Israel Defense Forces are slightly different. Senior IDF officials speak of the nuclear agreement in very dissimilar terms, using concepts unlike those embraced by Israel’s political leadership.

“It is true,” confirmed one top military source, speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “There is not a single expert in the IDF who believes that the Iranians have abandoned their nuclear aspirations. On the other hand, international pressure, sanctions and the clandestine campaign have induced them to sign the nuclear agreement, and it is our assessment that they will implement it meticulously. The agreement creates a 10- to 15-year window, which provides us with an enormous opportunity. We are talking about a strategic turning point. For the last 15 years, Iran has followed a steady vector leading to nuclear capacity. Now it has all been blocked, rolled back and frozen at a reasonable distance from that goal. This is real news.”