Will he, won't he? Turks ponder whether Erdogan will invade Syria
The unhappy Turkish president has many factors to consider if he is contemplating military intervention in Syria.
Nowadays, when two or more Turks come together, the conversation inevitably moves into questioning the motives of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his plans for Turkey's role in the ever-worsening situation in Syria. The question is: Is he going to push the army into Syrian territory?
Turkey's link with the Syrian rebels has been severely weakened by the seeming collapse of the Geneva III talks and the advances of Syrian regime forces from the north to Aleppo with the support of Russian air power. Dramatic developments are taking place in the Azaz-Jarablus corridor, which served as a lifeline for Syrian rebels backed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and also, more or less, for those endorsed by the United States. The fighting there is not only depriving Turkey of its most important leverage in Syria, but also triggering a massive exodus of Syrians to Turkey. Turkey, already strained due to some 2.5 million refugees, is now faced with tens of thousands of potential newcomers.
Moreover, as this strategically vital corridor for Turkey is depopulated because of the intense Russian airstrikes, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) is moving into the region. As a result of this, Kurds can connect the Kurdish cantons stretching from Syria’s eastern frontier with Iraq and its western frontier with Turkey. Ankara has repeatedly declared any YPG move to the west of the Euphrates River as a red line violation, and Erdogan has said that Turkey is determined to act against such violations.
Yet that “red line” has been breached and perhaps effectively erased, as was the case with previous Turkish lines drawn to obstruct Kurdish ambitions in the region.
