Should they stay or should they go? Turkey leaves foreign investors at odds
Short-term foreign investors staged their biggest flight from Turkey last year, while foreign direct investments shot up to a seven-year high.
Foreign investors acted in opposing ways in Turkey last year. One group sold off whatever they had in their portfolios and left. The flight of so-called hot money — short-term investments in treasury bonds and stock shares — reached an unprecedented level in Turkish history.
Faik Oztrak, former treasury undersecretary, told Al-Monitor that foreign-held portfolios experienced a net cash out of $9.4 billion in 2015, exceeding sell-offs during Turkey’s financial crises from 2001 to 2008. The 2001 capital flight, totaling some $7 billion, was particularly biting due to Turkey’s low foreign reserves at the time.
Oztrak said the foreign sell-off last year was the largest so far, according to available Central Bank statistics. He also warned, “In 2016, global conditions remain uncertain. An unfavorable move by the US Federal Reserve, for instance, could lead to a repetition of what happened in 2015.”
Economic movement, however, is not a one-way street. In contrast to the flight of short-term money, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey reached $16.75 billion last year. In 2007, it topped off at $22 billion, the highest in the early 2000s, followed by $19.7 billion in 2008, before the impact of the crisis kicked in.
