Could refugees become the leading export of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by 2050? Several studies by research facilities including the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, and the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia suggest that possibility.

The Max Planck study argues that parts of MENA “may become uninhabitable due to climate change [and] the number of climate refugees could increase dramatically in the future.” Worse still, “The goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius [3.6 degrees Fahrenheit], agreed at the recent UN climate summit in Paris, will not be sufficient to prevent this scenario.”

The report’s numbers are chilling. If governments around the world ignore the promises they made at the Paris climate change summit in December 2015 and global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, Max Planck and Cyprus researchers expect winter temperatures in MENA countries to rise by an average of 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5-5 degrees Fahrenheit). Average summer temperatures will increase by 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit).

By 2050, the region could experience 80 extremely hot days instead of the current 16. During the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) and could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (114 degrees Fahrenheit) during the day. By 2100, daytime temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) are quite possible.