Fed’s road map threatens to jolt Turkey
The US Federal Reserve’s plan to trim its balance sheet and keep hiking interest rates could spell trouble for Turkey by changing the direction of global funds and pushing up the price of the dollar.
Following its Sept. 20 meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Markets Committee announced decisions, assessments and forecasts with global implications. The Fed set October for the start of its plan to shrink its $4.5 trillion balance sheet — the result of a massive bond-buying spree after the 2008 financial crisis — by shedding $10 billion in bonds per month, raising the amount every three months until it reaches $50 billion.
On the interest rate front, the Fed aims at roughly a one-point increase through four hikes over a year. Most committee members indicated they expected to deliver another rate increase by the end of 2017, which, coupled with the start of balance sheet trimming next month, went slightly beyond expectations, causing fluctuations in the markets. For emerging economies such as Turkey, the Fed decisions are not pleasant news, for they raise the specter of dollar flight and increasing interest rates.
Turkey, the most fragile of the Fragile Five, saw its currency depreciate the most in the immediate aftermath of the Fed decisions. The dollar’s price surpassed the 3.5-lira mark, and though it retreated a bit the following day, the trend remains upward.
The Fed’s course in the coming months remains subject to questions and doubts, stemming from US President Donald Trump’s lackluster performance. The Trump factor is actually the reason why the Fed has been treading cautiously, and many observers believe it will continue to do so.
