Can Congress avoid blowing up the Iran deal?
If President Donald Trump doesn’t certify Iranian compliance with the 2015 agreement later this month, the US Senate only needs a bare majority to reinstate deal-breaking sanctions.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly indicated that he won’t find Iran to be in compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal later this month. If he follows through, the agreement’s fate will lie with a Republican-controlled Congress for whom the easiest solution — both politically and legislatively — will be to reimpose nuclear-related sanctions that could well blow up the deal.
Under the 2015 law that paved the way for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Congress will have 60 days to take action if Trump won’t certify Iranian compliance with the deal by the Oct. 15 deadline. While most legislation takes 60 votes to pass in the Senate, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) specifically allows the upper chamber to reinstate several hard-hitting sanctions packages with a partisan majority of just 51 senators (Vice President Mike Pence would split a 50-50 tie).
“It’s 50 votes, so they can’t rely … upon a minority to block it procedurally,” said Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., a supporter of the deal. “I think that would be a difficult vote.”
Republicans currently hold 52 Senate seats and a comfortable majority in the House, more than enough to reinstate sanctions without any Democrats joining them if they band together. Not a single Republican in either chamber voted for the deal in 2015, and congressional leaders are desperate for a political win after back-to-back defeats on health care.
