The million-dollar questions that everyone all over the world was asking Dec. 6 were: Why? Why now? What prompted President Donald Trump to do what no other US president did for the last 22 years (since the Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995) and undo the booby-trapped Gordian knot of recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel? This question is being asked from the Persian Gulf to Berlin, from Ramallah to the UN headquarters in New York. It is being asked in Cairo, Amman, Riyadh and Ankara — but also in Tel Aviv and in Washington.

What stands behind the strange decision made by Trump in spite of the heavy international pressure that was inflicted on him from all directions in recent days? Are we dealing with a “grand plan” of which this is the first step? Is Jerusalem recognition just a prelude that precedes the far-reaching, hard-to-digest diplomatic plan that will soon be placed on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s table?

Most assessments say not.

Countless political pundits have tried and failed to predict or interpret Trump using the conventional tools of the field. Every time that there is a choice between sophisticated conspiracy and unprofessional populism, it’s best to pick the latter option. This is true despite words pronounced Dec. 6 by Trump son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner. According to an American source who spoke on condition of anonymity, Kushner, who made a rare appearance Dec. 3 at the Saban Forum in Washington, said after Trump's decision that “this is just the first step of something big.”