Three hospitalizations in the course of a week have made whispers about the health of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas the stuff of headlines. On the evening of May 20, with Abbas in a Ramallah hospital with a high fever, an ear infection and possible pneumonia, a senior Israeli defense official speaking on the condition of anonymity told Al-Monitor that Israel does not perceive an immediate threat to the Palestinian leader’s life. In the same breath, he added, however, “There is no debate that we are seeing his final leadership days.” Other Israeli security sources say, based on intelligence reports, that the elderly Palestinian leader — 82 and a half years old, still chain smoking and with a long list of medical ailments — could exit center stage anywhere from a few months to two years from now. In other words, the time is about right to prepare for what happens after his departure.

When I recently asked five Israeli Cabinet ministers who will take over after Abbas, not one could offer a name or even a well-thought-out assessment of what might happen. The situation is the same among members of Israel’s intelligence community. When Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Chairman Yasser Arafat was dying, there was no doubt that Abbas would succeed him. Now, with Abbas, the most common response is, “Anything can happen.” As far as anyone knows, the Israeli Cabinet has not held serious discussions about who the next partner for peace will be. Perhaps it is because most Cabinet members are not interested in such a partner.

Abbas himself has done nothing to ensure an organized transfer of power. Majid Faraj, head of his security forces, may be the Americans' choice and appreciated by the Israelis, but Abbas has not positioned Faraj to be his successor in any of the PLO’s institutions. Israel thinks Abbas simply wants to be missed. Given the situation, the most common assessment in Israel is that once Abbas is gone, the Palestinian Authority (PA) will face a succession struggle.

It is possible that a triumvirate will be formed or that one of several bureaucrats will be appointed for a set period of time. The names being mentioned in this regard are Mahmoud al-Aloul, who was appointed Abbas' deputy in the PLO in 2017, or the current PA prime minister, Rami Hamdallah. Some people have also mentioned former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, who would have been the dream candidate of the previous US administration, for placing “economic peace” over a comprehensive peace agreement.