The Turkish military has completed its preparations to intervene in Manbij, the mainly Arab town in northern Syria that is emblematic of continued friction with the United States, as well as east of the Euphrates River, where Washington’s Kurdish allies govern a stretch of territory running all the way to Iraq. “When the time comes, the necessary measures will be taken," said Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar during a visit to a military facility in the central Anatolian province of Eskisehir today.
The comments are the latest in a volley of Turkish vows to take action against the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), Washington’s top ally in the fight against the Islamic State, and to establish a safe zone 20 miles (32 kilometers) deep along its southern border with Syria. On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the zone would allow the four million or so Syrians sheltering in Turkey to go back home and rid the area of "terrorists," as Turkey labels the YPG.
While Turkish leaders beat the war drums, Ilham Ahmed, the co-chair of the YPG-friendly Syrian Democratic Council, is in Washington to lobby the Donald Trump administration and assorted congressmen to prevent a Turkish offensive and to secure backing for a safe zone that would protect the Kurds from Turkey. Ahmed, who has also been speaking at closed-door sessions at several think tanks and spoken to journalists, was captured on camera at the Trump hotel in a pre-arranged run-in with the US president, who briefly spoke to her and reportedly pledged to set up a safe zone for the Kurds. But that is unlikely to materialize in the face of stiff resistance from Turkey to any arrangement that would allow the YPG to continue to exert its influence with US help. But then, the kind of safe zone Turkey is purportedly angling for, one that becomes a parking ground for Syrian refugees and with the YPG demobilized, disarmed and pushed south, is no more likely, unless either the Pentagon or Moscow sign off on those terms. They are unlikely to do so.
Both sides know this and are bargaining with the main stakeholders from a maximalist position in the hope of gaining the upper hand before US troops withdraw.
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