Can Saudi Arabia afford a stimulus?
Oil-revenue-dependent Saudi Arabia still has $490 billion in reserve assets, but its massive foreign and domestic commitments and a long-term declining demand curve for oil could spell trouble down the road.
2019 is already a very costly year for Saudi Arabia.
In addition to commitments of direct financial support to central banks, aid, and foreign direct investment by state companies to a number of regional governments made over the past year, Saudi Arabia also plans a massive stimulus package in infrastructure spending to prompt domestic growth.
In conjunction with his tour to Asia this month, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman oversaw a $6 billion support package (half in direct central bank support, half in loans to purchase Saudi oil) to Pakistan, along with billions in promises of investment, particularly in refineries. Add to that a new $500 million pledge to Yemen and 2.5 billion in support to Jordan, among others. Expansionist fiscal and foreign policy is taking a toll.
Generating new jobs, and enticing Saudis to take them, has proven difficult just three years into the economic transformation effort. Moreover, hopes of inflows of foreign investment to develop new sectors of the Saudi economy, whether in entertainment, tourism or defense manufacturing, are diminishing. Foreign direct investment has declined in Saudi Arabia for well over a decade, but since 2017 it has been in a downward spiral.
