Since the bombing of the Russian military base in Khmeimim on New Year’s Day, the danger of an assault from the air became a routine one for Russian troops. Today, Russian military commanders are using the peril of drone attacks as a reason to start a military campaign in Idlib in the nearest future. It’s possible, however, that Russia's use of the information about the bombings is only an instrument to express its discontent with how Turkey is implementing the Sochi agreement.

Over the last two months, the Russian Defense Ministry has been reporting about damage from multiple launch rocket system missiles, and from drones launched by militants from the Idlib de-escalation zone in order to adjust targeting or to drop fragmentation ammunition. According to official statistics, Khmeimim was shelled five times in May and 12 times in April.

The Defense Ministry blames the assaults on groups affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and frequently accuses them of violating the temporary cease-fire, which Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is not a party to, as no one officially negotiates with it in the first place. At the same time, the growing numbers of reports about attacks on Khmeimim correspond to an increasing intensity of action by the Syrian and Russian air forces in the area. It is often difficult to identify whether opposition militants or pro-Iranian groups break the cease-fire first to sabotage Russian-Turkish arrangements, as was the case in April when pro-regime forces and opposition groupings engaged in new round of violence.

Previous such attacks on Khmeimim were registered in August and September of 2018 when the Syrian air force was also operating quite dynamically in Idlib. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militants published footage of preparations for the drone attacks, which they viewed as the most available way to retaliate for the actions of Syrian and Russian forces. At the same time, when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was accused of attacks by the Russians, it dismissed the idea.