President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying not to show it, but the growing political and economic cost of Turkey's frayed relations with the West concerns him to the extent of his signaling a desire to mend fences with the United States and Europe. The measures he proposes to achieve this, however, have not convinced his Western partners. They remain focused on results, not on offers and vague promises designed to buy time as they see it.

At the same time, Erdogan remains determined to hold his ground by refusing to back down on the crucial issue of Turkey purchasing Russian S-400 anti-missile defense systems, which has turned into a litmus test for the future of US-Turkish relations. For Erdogan, the issue is also one of political prestige, as he is loath to give the impression of bowing to US pressure on any matter. He knows how his political rivals would use it against him.

Erdogan is also, however, aware of the dire consequences for the Turkish economy if Washington were to slap economic sanctions on Turkey over the S-400. He got a bitter taste of what such sanctions can do last year during the dust-up involving Turkey’s incarceration of the American Pastor Andrew Brunson.

Many argue that Erdogan is primarily concerned about the political cost to himself stemming from Turkey’s ailing economy. That cost became apparent in the poor showing of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in municipal elections held March 31.