I received a text message from a senior Justice and Development (AKP) member as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed his party’s delegates on Sept. 5. It read, “Are you watching? Wait to see how Erdogan will threaten [US President Donald] Trump through the EU. Let me know what you think.”

Erdogan explained if the United States does not agree to work with Turkey on a Syrian safe zone, Turkey will go ahead with it on its own. He announced the deadline as the last week of September, explaining what a burden 3.6 million Syrian refugees have become for the country and that Turkey cannot be forced to carry it alone. He stated that the goal is to relocate at least one million Syrians into the safe zone, saying, “We spent $40 billion so far” and that the EU’s aid was only around three billion euros ($3.3 billion). Erdogan said he provided detailed construction plans for homes with gardens in the safe zone for relocated Syrians. He suggested that Western powers had embraced the idea and it was time to act.

Erdogan concluded the speech by emphasizing that if the safe zone was not established, Turkey would be forced to open the gates to Europe. He complained about the EU and other countries paying lip service to the struggles of Syrian refugees but not picking up the tab. 

In July, Al-Monitor reported about the forced deportations of Syrians, particularly from Istanbul. Unregistered Syrians were given until Aug. 20 to leave the city. The Interior Ministry quietly announced that the deadline was extended until Oct. 30 and that Turkey had recalibrated its refugee policies. Almost all restrictions were relaxed. The harsh deportation policy is gone and the new guidelines are much more flexible.