Netanyahu still king of Likud

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s sweeping victory in the Dec. 26 Likud primaries allows him to launch his next campaign for the premiership under far better conditions than prior to the September elections, even though this time, he will be under indictment for bribery. It means the Netanyahu paradox will be with us during the country’s third election of the past year.

Netanyahu not only survived in the party primaries, he dealt a knockout blow to the man who sought to replace him, Knesset member Gideon Saar (receiving 41,792 votes to Saar’s 15,585). Saar used logic to appeal to the party’s members, arguing that unlike Netanyahu, who had failed twice to form a government, he would succeed. However, he failed to convince them and his image took a severe beating. He had hoped to garner at least 35% of the vote, but ended up with only 27.5% of the vote. He now heads a camp comprised of five Knesset members out of the Likud’s 32, but is unlikely to use this support as leverage against Netanyahu — certainly not if he wants to ensure his survival in the Likud and to run again for its leadership in the future.

In hindsight, the primary elections that he forced on Netanyahu, and that appeared to signal a serious threat to the prime minister and his prestige, turned out to be the best thing Netanyahu could have hoped for. In recent weeks, he has toured Likud strongholds around the country, energizing party members who embraced him with authentic shows of support, and gave him legitimacy to continue leading the party even in his current legal predicament. Saar miscalculated his own backing within the Likud, believing that the Likudniks want to retain the party’s hold on power at all costs. However, members voted en masse for Netanyahu, knowing they may find themselves following him to the opposition benches after the March elections.

Netanyahu’s victory will have an immediate effect on the campaigns ahead of the next elections. Netanyahu has quashed the rumors swirling around him for the past year of an imminent Likud revolt against his leadership. This idea, it turns out, never had real grounding among the Likud rank and file. It was kindled by his rivals in the opposition Blue and White Party, Yisrael Beitenu chair Avigdor Liberman and by Saar himself. Netanyahu’s opponents will no longer be able to claim that he is finished in the Likud.