Less than three weeks after US strikes killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and Iran retaliated with strikes on US forces in Iraq, the war fever in the Persian Gulf seems to have passed. Or there is some powerful acetaminophen in the air.
At least that was my impression following visits to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates this month.
Over the weekend of Jan. 11 in Abu Dhabi, the UAE Minister of State Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber addressed an audience of energy analysts and media as part of Abu Dhabi sustainability week. His message was similar in tone to that of President Donald Trump, who had recently tweeted “All is well.” Jaber, who is also CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said, “I am pleased that geopolitical tensions have dissipated over the past few days, and that wisdom, balance and diplomacy appear to be prevailing.”
The rhetoric of de-escalation is welcome, given the recent state of high anxiety, but the risk of escalation remains high. The Trump administration wants to demonstrate to Americans that the president's high-stakes gambles are strategic, the risks are measured and the payoff will be a neutralized Iran without nuclear capability. The Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, want to focus on the business of exporting oil and to demonstrate to their customers, investors and citizens that they are insulated from tit-for-tat exchanges between the United States and Iran. The increasingly diversified economies of the Gulf depend on expatriate labor and consumption, tourists and foreign investors. And more than anything, they need to protect their citizens, as the region anticipates possible further backlash by Iran, and there is a general unease about the extent of America's commitment.
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