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1. Would Kurds cut another deal with Assad to pressure Turkey in Syria war?
The bloodshed between Turkish and Syrian forces in Idlib could give Syrian Kurds an opening to explore a deal with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against their bitter rival Turkey. The risk for Turkey is an even deeper quagmire. To head that off, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may yet be willing to give Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shuttle diplomacy a second chance.
Operation Peace Spring: The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes key Kurdish groups, cut a deal with Damascus in October 2019 after Turkish forces invaded northeastern Syria (Operation Peace Spring) to expel Kurdish groups allied with the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its gendarme, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey considers the PYD/YPG a terrorist group. The YPG is the backbone of the SDF. The United States also maintains a partnership with the SDF against the Islamic State. The Turkish operation has resulted in limited casualties in recent months, but has allowed Erdogan to claim he will resettle as many as 1 million of the 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, as well as an additional approximately 600,000 refugees from Idlib, in this so-called safe or security zone.
Syria starts new front: But things aren’t going to plan for Erdogan. He blamed “Russian negligence” for the Syrian army’s killing of eight Turkish soldiers and civilians in Idlib province Feb. 3, which triggered a new round of direct clashes between Syrian and Turkish forces, with casualties on both sides. The Syrian army has continued its assault to take several key roads and highway access points — long-sought objectives in the war.
Turkey calls out Russia (again): Turkey has 12 military outposts in the region, according to a Russia-Turkish de-escalation agreement in 2018. Today, Erdogan said that Turkey will “do whatever is necessary” to push Syrian forces out of the de-escalation zone and behind the outposts by the end of February and blamed the “regime” and the Russians for targeting civilians, not terrorists, in Idlib. | | | |
