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Escalation in Syria and Libya tests limits of Erdogan-Putin ties

The recent escalation in Libya and Syria has put on display the limits of the relationship between the Turkish and Russian presidents.

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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan (R) and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin attend a working lunch in Istanbul, Turkey, Jan. 8, 2020. — Sputnik/Alexei Druzhinin/Kremlin via REUTERS

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is following an assertive and aggressive foreign policy, from northern Syria to the eastern Mediterranean. His policy of brinkmanship contains the dangers of a military confrontation with too many players, although such a possibility means a lose-lose scenario for all players involved.

Ongoing escalation in Syria will undoubtedly influence the situation in Libya, as Erdogan’s policies have linked the two matters. Besides, the course of the events in Libya will influence the balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean.

The offensive of the Russian-backed Syrian regime forces against Idlib, where eight Turks were killed by shelling, has cracked Turkey and Russia's partnership, which had looked solid since 2016.

Erdogan said that Turkey would be unable to deal with a new influx of Syrian refugees. “We will not shy away from doing whatever it takes to prevent this, including using military force,” he said.

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