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Is diplomacy running out on Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile dam?

The African Union, the UN Security Council and the Trump administration may be last best bets to stave off an Egypt-Ethiopia war.

Kafule Yigzaw (L) check iron bars at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on December 26, 2019. - The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a 145-metre-high, 1.8-kilometre-long concrete colossus is set to become the largest hydropower plant in Africa.
Across Ethiopia, poor farmers and rich businessmen alike eagerly await the more than 6,000 megawatts of electricity officials say it will ultimately provide. 
Yet as thousands of workers toil day and night to finish the project, Ethiop
Kafule Yigzaw (L) checks iron bars at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, near Guba in Ethiopia, Dec. 26, 2019. — EDUARDO SOTERAS/AFP via Getty Images

Life and death

“For Egypt, the matter of the Nile is a matter of life and death,” Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said in an exclusive interview with Al-Monitor in September 2019, adding, “I don’t think anybody would agree that Ethiopian development should come at the expense of the lives of Egyptians.”

Those are the stakes, as Egypt, sees it, if Ethiopia ignores Cairo’s appeals to hold off on filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) before an agreement is reached on how the Nile’s waters should be shared among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

After the collapse of the latest round of talks, brokered by South Africa and mediated by the African Union, the diplomatic thread is running out, and while armed conflict seems a remote possibility, it can’t be dismissed, either.

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